Dream vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Monday, Sept. 21

The Liberty are 14-6 at home, but they're underdogs in Monday's matchup.

The New York Liberty and forward Breanna Stewart are underdogs on Sept. 21. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A crucial matchup for the WNBA playoff standings takes place on Monday night, as the New York Liberty host the Atlanta Dream for the first of two games between these teams to close the regular season.

New York is two games back of the No. 4-seeded Dream – and an underdog tonight – but it won the first game between these two this season. So, back-to-back Liberty wins would put them ahead of Atlanta in the final standings. 

That puts a ton at stake for both teams, as New York is also in a three-way tie for the No. 6 seed with Dallas and Washington (all 26-16) with just two games to play. Any jump in the standings is helpful with nearly every team in the playoff picture showing the upside that it could win a playoff series. 

New York is coming off a win over Toronto on Sunday, and both of these teams have won three games in a row. 

Atlanta enters as a slight road favorite, but the Liberty are 14-6 at Barclays Center in 2026. 

So, who has the edge tonight? 

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown on Sept. 21. 

Dream vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Dream -2.5 (-108)
• Liberty +2.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Dream: -135
• Liberty: +114

Total

• 179.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Dream vs. Liberty How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 21
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Barclays Center
• How to Watch (TV): Peacock, NBCSN, WWOR-TV, Liberty Live, Atlanta News First
• Dream record: 28-14
• Liberty record: 26-16

Dream vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Dream Injury Report

• Brionna Jones – out

Liberty Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Dream vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Dream Best WNBA Prop Bet

• Angel Reese UNDER 11.5 Rebounds (+106)

I’m going to take a shot on a plus-money prop by fading Angel Reese in this matchup.

The Liberty held the All-Star forward to just nine boards in their first meeting this season, and both of these teams rank in the top three in the WNBA in rebound percentage and opponent rebounds per game.

So, I don’t expect this to be an easy game for Reese, who has grabbed 11 or fewer boards in 18 of her 41 games this season. The three-time All-Star is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game, but this is a tough Liberty frontcourt with Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart down low. 

Reese may still end up with a double-double, but I like the value (+106) since she didn’t even reach 10 boards the last time these teams played.  

Dream vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Liberty are a great bet at home against Atlanta: 

Monday’s matchup is the first of two in a row between these teams in New York, and oddsmakers are giving the Dream an edge with the Liberty coming off a win over Toronto on Sunday. 

New York has now won three games in a row and is an impressive 14-6 at home this season, covering the spread in its lone game as a home underdog.

Meanwhile, the Dream are under .500 against the spread as road favorites (and as favorites in general) in 2026. Atlanta also lost by double digits at home in the first meeting between these teams this season. 

The Dream are third in the league in net rating and have won eight of their last 10 games, but these teams aren’t that far apart in the standings as New York is just two games back. In fact, back-to-back wins by the Liberty would push them ahead of the Dream in the postseason standings since they would have swept the season series. 

New York is a top-seven team in offensive, defensive and net rating, and it has a net rating of plus-7.6 at home.

Since I believe these teams are evenly matched – and both are red hot over their last 10 games – I don’t mind taking the points with the Liberty as long as they have stars like Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones in the lineup. 

Pick: Liberty +2.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.