England vs. Argentina Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Semifinals

English soccer fans are holding their breath, wondering if it's finally "coming home". Once again, England has a chance to win the World Cup for the first time since 1966. Two countries stand in front of them; Argentina is Spain.

Before they can think about the Spanish, they have to get past the defending champions on Wednesday. Argentina is looking to be the first team to win back-to-back World Cups since Brazil did it in 1958-1962.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bets for Wednesday's semifinal showdown.

England vs. Argentina Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Advance

England -120 (54.55% implied probability)
Argentina

3-Way Moneyline

England +170
Argentina +200
Draw +185

Total (90 Minutes)

OVER 2.5 (+135)
UNDER 2.5 (-170)

England vs. Argentina How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, July 15
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Atlanta Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Fox One
England record: 5-1-0
Argentina record: 6-0-0

England vs. Argentina History and Tournament Results

England and Argentina have faced each other 14 times before. England is 6-5-3 in those 14 matches. The most recent match was a 3-2 win by England in a 2005 international friendly. They have played against each other in World Cups five times, and England has a 3-0-2 record in World Cup meetings. The most recent World Cup matchup was a Group Stage meeting at the 2002 World Cup. The game was won 1-0 by England behind a David Beckham goal. England also defeated Argentina 1-0 in the quarterfinals of the 1966 World Cup en route to their only World Cup title.

England

England defeated Croatia 4-2 in its first World Cup match, but then played to a 0-0 draw against Ghana. Since then, they've defeated Panama 2-0 to round out the group stage, and then DR Congo 2-1, Mexico 3-2, and Norway 2-1 in the knockout stage.

Argentina

Argentina has won all six of its matches in this World Cup. They defeated Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0, and Jordan 3-1 in the group stage. They then defeated Cape Verde 3-2, Egypt 3-2, and Switzerland 3-1 in the knockout stage, needing extra time to get past both Cape Verde and Switzerland.

England vs. Argentina Best Prop Bet

Lionel Messi Anytime Goal (+125)

In today's edition of my Best World Cup Goal Scorer Bets, I made the case for betting on Messi to score once again at +125:

No player has scored more goals than Lionel Messi this World Cup, with eight, and no player has taken more shots than him, with 33. He also leads all players in expected goals at 7.74. Now, he and Argentina get to face an England team that has struggled defensively at times in this tournament, sporting an expected goals against of 1.20 per 90 minutes of play. I'm surprised we can bet on Messi to score at +125.

England vs. Argentina Prediction and Best Bet

I'm sorry, England fans, I'm betting on Argentina to return to the final. I wrote about why in today's edition of my Best World Cup Bets:

Let's be honest, we all feel in our gut that the country of England is going to once again suffer from heartbreak sooner or later, and now I think is when it's going to happen. Argentina's path to this match hasn't been as hard as some other teams, but let's not allow recency bias to take over. Argentina has the better expected goal differential in this matchup at +0.9 per 90 minutes, which is a step above England at +0.68.

Let's also not forget that England has struggled at times in this tournament. They played Ghana to a draw, needed two late goals to beat DR Congo, and needed extra time to beat Norway. If they don't bring their "A" game against Argentina, they'll be facing France in the third-place match this weekend.

The wrong team is favored. Give me Argentina.

Pick: Argentina to Advance (+100) via DraftKings

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