Every Team’s Odds to Win World Cup Ahead of Semifinals (France Heavily Favored; Can Argentina Repeat?)

The stage is set for the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals, and four of the best teams in the world have advanced through the knockout rounds to set up an extremely exciting final four.

France, Spain, Argentina and England were all considered contenders to win the World Cup before the tournament began, yet one has risen above the rest in the eyes of oddsmakers. At the best betting sites, France is set as the clear favorite (+150) to win the World Cup for the third time (and second time since 2018).

However, it has to face Spain in the semifinals, which entered the 2026 World Cup as the No. 2 team in the odds. On the other half of the bracket, defending World Cup champion Argentina faces its toughest test yet against England and Harry Kane.

England has not won the World Cup since 1966, and it has not made a final appearance since then. Can it make history this week?

Monday is an off day for all of these teams before action resumes on Tuesday and Wednesday with the semifinals. The final is set for Sunday, July 19 at New York/New Jersey Stadium.

Here’s a look at the latest odds to win the World Cup, and the case for each team ahead of the semifinals.

Odds to Win 2026 FIFA World Cup

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

France: +150 (40.00% implied probability)
Spain: +320 (23.81% implied probability)
England: +340 (22.73% implied probability)
Argentina: +360 (21.74% implied probability)

France (+150)

France has been the favorite to win the World Cup from the start, and it is the most talented team in the field. After winning in 2018, France was the runner-up in 2022, losing to Argentina in the final.

Kylian Mbappe and Co. would love to get revenge, and they have played a dominant brand of soccer in this tournament. France has outscored its opponents 16-2 in six games, winning all of them. Les Blues are now 9-0-1 in their last 10 international matches, averaging over 2.0 expected goals per game.

It appears that the winner of the France vs. Spain semifinal will be favored in the final, as they are the top two teams in the odds. Spain has allowed just one goal in this entire tournament, which should put some pressure on Mbappe and France on offense.

In the knockout rounds, France has wins over Sweden (3-0), Paraguay (1-0) and Morocco (2-0).

Spain (+320)

Spain is known for playing a ball-control, possession-heavy style, and it has helped it keep opposing offenses in check in this tournament.

Spain has allowed just one goal – to Belgium in the quarterfinals – in the World Cup, and it remains the No. 2 choice in the latest odds to win it all.

Over its last 10 international matches, Spain is 7-3-0, allowing just 0.6 expected goals per game. So, this matchup with France is a true heavyweight fight, even though France is the favorite to win.

In the World Cup, Spain has picked up five wins in a row after an opening draw against Cape Verde in the Group Stage. The 2010 World Cup champions, Spain has not been in the final since and only has one other semifinal appearance (1950).

England (+340)

There’s a real chance to make history for Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane and this England team which hasn’t won the World Cup in 60 years.

This is just the third semifinal appearance for England since its 1966 World Cup win (the others came in 1990 and 2018), but it survived a tough Norway team and Erling Haaland in the quarterfinals.

England is now favored to knock off Argentina in the semifinals, and it has played well in this World Cup, going 5-1-0 while posting a plus-seven goal differential.

England, Spain and France are all averaging over two expected goals per game over their last 10 international matches.

Argentina (+360)

Argentina hasn’t had the easiest time in the knockout rounds, and that may be why it is last in the odds to win the World Cup. Lionel Messi and Co. are a perfect 10-0-0 in their last 10 international matches, but they may be in trouble against better competition in the semifinals.

Argentina needed added extra time to beat Cape Verde in the Round of 32, and it had three late goals to erase a 2-0 deficit against Egypt in the Round of 16.

Then, it went to added extra time again in the quarterfinals against Switzerland, scoring twice during that to pick up a 3-1 victory.

England is by far the toughest test for Argentina in this World Cup to date, but it’s worth noting that Messi’s squad has made the World Cup final twice in its last three appearances. The defending champs can certainly win again, but they’ll need to play a lot better than they have over their last three matches.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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