Falcons vs. Saints Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

The Atlanta Falcons are underdogs to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 4. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Michael Penix Jr. may have saved the Atlanta Falcons' season on Thursday Night Football last week. After a disastrous first two games of the season, he made his first start since suffering a knee injury last year and led the Falcons to a 35-14 upset over the Green Bay Packers.

The Falcons are back on prime time in Week 4 when they head to New Orleans to take on the Saints in an NFC South showdown.

The Saints are also 1-2 on the season, and depending on the result from the Lions vs. Panthers game on Sunday night, the winner of this game may sit alone atop the division through the first four weeks.

Falcons vs. Saints Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Falcons +2.5 (-102)
• Saints -2.5 (-118)

Moneyline

• Falcons +125
• Saints -150

Total

• OVER 48.5 (-108)
• UNDER 48.5 (-110)

Falcons vs. Saints How to Watch

• Date: Monday, October 5
• Time: 8:15 pm ET
• Venue: Caesars Superdome
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Falcons record: 1-2
• Saints record: 1-2

Falcons vs. Saints Betting Trends

• Each team is 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these two teams
• The OVER is 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams
• The Saints are 8-2 against the spread in the Saints' last 10 games
• The UNDER is 6-4 in the Saints' last 10 games

Falcons vs. Saints Key Player to Watch

• Michael Penix Jr., QB - Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. got off to a slow start on Thursday night, throwing an early interception, but he ended up turning things around as he built his confidence. He ended the night completing 18-of-25 passes for 256 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. If he can live up to expectations the rest of the season, the Falcons have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC South and snapping their playoff drought.

Falcons vs. Saints Prediction and Best Bet

In this week's edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I made the case for betting on the Falcons to win this game outright as underdogs:

I think we all saw just how different this Falcons team is with a competent quarterback. Michael Penix Jr. had a slow start against the Packers, but once he found his footing, the Falcons' offense looked elite, led by the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London.

Let's also give credit to the Falcons' defense, which is eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. If their offense can continue to improve and their defense can keep this level of play going, they're going to be a dangerous team.

I think I'm settling on the Saints being an average team. They're in the middle of the pack in both metrics, including ranking 15th in EPA per play and 24th in opponent EPA per play.

I'm willing to bet by the final whistle on Monday night, the NFC South will go through Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons +125 via BetMGM

---

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

Use BetMGM promo code ‘SI1500’ to get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets when you register and place your first wager with BetMGM Sportsbook. Deposit at least $10, make your pick, and BetMGM will return your full stake if you lose.

In MI, NJ, PA, and WV, you can place a $10 wager and get $150 in bonus bets if you win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.