Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 1

The Steelers are favored against the Falcons in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Aaron Rodgers will begin his final season in the NFL on Sunday afternoon when he and the Pittsburgh Steelers welcome the Atlanta Falcons to Acrisure Stadium.

It was announced on Monday morning that the Falcons will be starting Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback. They were hoping that Michael Penix Jr. would be ready to go by Week 1, but he needs a little bit more time to heal from last season's knee injury, so it'll be the former Miami Dolphin who will serve as the Week 1 starter.

Let's dive into everything you need to know to bet this Week 1 showdown.

Falcons vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Falcons +3.5 (-118)
• Steelers -3.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• Falcons +150
• Steelers -178

Total

• OVER 41.5 (-115)
• UNDER 41.5 (-105)

Falcons vs. Steelers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, September 12
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Falcons record: 0-0
• Steelers record: 0-0

Falcons vs. Steelers Betting Trends

• Steelers are 5-1 against the spread in its last six games vs. Falcons
• The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six meetings between these two teams
• Falcons finished the 2025 season going 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games
• The OVER went 7-3 in the Falcons' last 10 games in 2025
• The Steelers went 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games in 2025
• The UNDER went 6-4 in the Steelers' last 10 games in 2025

Falcons vs. Steelers Key Player to Watch

• Bijan Robinson, RB - Atlanta Falcons

If the Falcons contend for a playoff spot this season, it's going to be because Bijan Robinson carried them there. He enters the season as one of the favorites to be named Offensive Player of the Year. He's coming off a 2025 campaign where he not only gained 1,478 yards on the ground, but he also racked up 79 receptions for 820 yards. He'll be one of the most exciting players to watch this season.

Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction and Best Bet

In the Week 1 edition of the Road to 272 Bets, I broke down why I'm taking the points with the Falcons:

I don't think either of these teams is very good, but the Falcons have a higher upside with offensive weapons like Bijan Robinson and Drake London. The Steelers unfortunately have to rely on Aaron Rodgers for another season; he was a shell of his former self last year, and now he's another year older at 42. Athletes typically don't improve from a previous season at this age.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Steelers regress this season now that they've moved on from Mike Tomlin. I'm not sure that Mike McCarthy is a better coach.

With the spread set at north of a field goal, I'll take the points with Atlanta.

Pick: Falcons +3.5 (-118) via FanDuel

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