Fever vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

A’ja Wilson and the defending WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces begin their 2026 postseason run at home as the No. 3 seed takes on the No. 6-seeded Indiana Fever and Caitlin Clark for Game 1 of the first round on Sunday.

The Aces have won three of the last four WNBA Finals, turning in a massive second half in the 2025 season to capture a third ring. Las Vegas is second in the odds to win the Finals this season while the Fever dropped to fifth after losing their regular-season finale and falling to the No. 6 spot in the standings.

Indiana actually won two of the three regular-season clashes between these teams, and it’s the shortest underdog in Game 1. The Fever finished the regular season ahead of the Aces for the No. 1 offensive rating in the WNBA, and these teams have a ton of star scorers to watch.

Wilson, Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, Jackie Young and others bring a ton of star power to this series, which the Aces are -170 favorites to advance in. Still, it’s clear oddsmakers expect this to be the closest first-round matchup, especially since both teams were an impressive 15-7 at home in the regular season.

I’m eyeing a player prop and a game pick for this series opener, so let’s check out the latest odds, injuries and more to get us ready for Game 1.

Fever vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Fever +3.5 (-115)
Aces -3.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Fever: +130
Aces: -155

Total

183.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Fever vs. Aces How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 4:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Series: Tied 0-0

Fever vs. Aces Injury Reports

Fever Injury Report

Caitlin Clark -- probable
Aliyah Boston -- questionable
Tyasha Harris -- out

Aces Injury Report

Dana Evans -- out
NaLyssa Smith -- out

Fever vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Fever Best WNBA Prop Bet

Caitlin Clark OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-165)

The Aces have struggled to defend the 3-ball this season, ranking 12th in the league in opponent 3-point percentage and eighth in opponent 3s made per game.

Clark had a nightmare shooting game (0-for-7 from 3) against Minnesota to close the regular season, but she’s shooting 39.0 percent from deep since Aug. 1, averaging 3.4 made 3-pointers per game.

The volume is the key for Clark, as she’s taking nearly nine shots per game from beyond the arc since Aug. 1 and is averaging 7.9 3-point attempts per game for the season. I’m buying her to have a solid Game 1 with the Fever set as slight underdogs.

Fever vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I like Las Vegas to win this matchup:

The Aces have moved all the way down to just 3.5-point favorites in Game 1, but I think they’re the better team in this matchup.

Not only does Las Vegas have a championship pedigree (three titles in the last four seasons), but it was dominant when favored at home, going 12-9 against the spread with an average scoring margin of plus-9.0.

The Fever did beat the Aces twice this season, but Indy was just 13-9 straight up on the road this season. I’d expect this series to go the distance, which could lead to these teams splitting the first two games at their respective home arenas.

The Aces have a better net rating and defensive rating than the Fever this season, and these teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in offense. I will gladly take this moneyline price for A’ja Wilson and Co. to continue their playoff dominance.

Pick: Aces Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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