Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open Semifinals

Americans Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton both put together special performances in the quarterfinal round of the U.S. Open on Tuesday, and they’re now set to face off in the semifinals on Friday.

Tiafoe fell down two sets to none against Alex Michelsen in the quarterfinals, but he rallied back to win the next three 7-5, 6-3, 7-6, taking a tiebreak in the fifth set to advance to the semis for the third time in the last five years. Tiafoe has never made a Grand Slam final, but he’s just one win away on Friday.

Meanwhile, Shelton pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the tournament, knocking out No. 2 seed and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in five sets. Shelton also won the final set in a wild tiebreak, putting him in his first U.S. Open semifinal since 2023.

The No. 11 seed (Tiafoe) and No. 8 seed (Shelton) have faced off four times in their respective careers, splitting two U.S. Open matches. Shelton actually knocked Tiafoe out in the quarterfinals in 2023.

Oddsmakers have set Shelton as the clear favorite in this match, and he jumped way up in the odds to win the U.S. Open after defeating Alcaraz.

Let’s take a look at the odds for this match, each player’s path to the semis and my prediction for this semifinal.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Frances Tiafoe: +243
Ben Shelton: -311

Total

40.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 11
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN2

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton History and U.S. Open Performance

This semifinal will be the fifth meeting between Shelton and Tiafoe all time, but they have not faced off yet in 2026.

Tiafoe’s lone win came back in the 2024 U.S. Open, but he’s picked off at least one set in two of his three other matches against Shelton. Their last meeting was back in 2025, where Shelton won 7-6, 6-4.

Frances Tiafoe

What more can be said about Tiafoe’s resilience in this tournament?

The No. 11 seed in the U.S. Open needed five sets to get out of the first round against Martin Damm Jr., battling to advance. He then had a similar path in the quarterfinals against Michelsen. Outside of that, he has won three matches in straight sets.

Tiafoe took down No. 7 Daniil Medvedev in Round 4, and he’s eyeing one of his best-ever showings at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center over the last four years.

There’s no doubt that Tiafoe has played the U.S. Open better than any Grand Slam event in his career, which makes him an interesting underdog against Shelton. Tiafoe has four quarterfinal appearances and three semifinal appearances in his U.S. Open career.

Ben Shelton

A marathon match on Wednesday night ended with Shelton defeating Alcaraz in five sets, and the No. 8 seed may have his best chance to win a Grand Slam of his career so far in this year’s U.S. Open.

After dropping at least one set in each of his first three matches in the 2026 U.S. Open, Shelton made quick work of Stefanos Tsitsipas in Round 4, winning 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. He then held off Alcaraz, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6, to reach his second U.S. Open semifinal.

The American won the National Bank Open after his early Wimbledon exit this year, but he was bounced in his first round match at the Cincinnati Open. So, there have been a wild array of outcomes for him this summer.

He’s looking to get revenge on Tiafoe, who knocked him out of the U.S. Open in 2024.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Prediction and Pick

Both of these players are fortunate to have an extra day of rest ahead of Friday’s semifinal after going the distance on Tuesday. That should take away any fatigue concerns, but this could be a long match as well.

Tiafoe has either won or taken a set in all but one of his matches against Shelton, and the No. 11 seed has proven that he will not go down without a fight in this tournament.

I’m going to bet on Tiafoe to win a set, especially since Shelton has only won one match in this tournament in straight sets. It’s not the best price (-275), but I don’t love betting on Shelton to win outright given how heavily favored he is on Friday.

If you’d rather take a play at better odds, I don’t mind the OVER 40.5 games since both of these players had long matches in the quarterfinals.

However, it’s worth noting that their U.S. Open meetings so far have finished with 38 (Shelton win) and 54 (Tiafoe win) games.

Pick: Frances Tiafoe to Win a Set (-275 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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