Guardians vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Sept. 9

The Cleveland Guardians and Baltimore Orioles wrap up a three-game set on Wednesday evening, as the Guards look to hold on to their one-game lead for the final wild card spot in the AL.

Baltimore is now four games back of Cleveland after losing seven of eight games, but the Toronto Blue Jays are just a game behind Stephen Vogt’s club entering this matchup.

Cleveland has trade-deadline addition Foster Griffin (3.26 ERA) on the mound for this seventh start with the franchise, and the Guardians are 4-2 so far in his six outings. He’ll take on Baltimore’s Shane Baz (3.91 ERA), who has pitched well in 2026 despite the fact that the O’s have won just seven of his 28 appearances.

Oddsmakers have set Cleveland as a road favorite in this game, but Baltimore already stole a matchup in this series. Can Baz lead the O’s to an upset win to help them creep closer to a playoff spot?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series finale on Sept. 9.

Guardians vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Guardians -1.5 (+144)
Orioles +1.5 (-175)

Moneyline

Guardians: -118
Orioles: -102

Total

8.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Guardians vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

Cleveland: Foster Griffin (15-4, 3.26 ERA)
Baltimore: Shane Baz (5-15, 3.91 ERA)

Guardians vs. Orioles How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9
Time: 6:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
How to Watch (TV): MASN, CLEGuardians.TV
Guardians record: 74-72
Orioles record: 70-76

Guardians vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

Shane Baz UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed (-153)

This season, Baz has allowed 161 hits in 163.1 innings of work, but he’s kept his opponents in check in recent weeks. The right-hander has allowed five or fewer hits in five of his seven outings since Aug. 1 after doing so just seven times in his first 21 outings in 2026.

Cleveland has been far from an elite offensive team in 2026, ranking 23rd in the league in batting average and 28th in OPS.

Baz has an expected BAA of .249 this season, but he’s not allowing a ton of barrels, ranking in the 66th percentile in barrel percentage. I think the Orioles right-hander is worth a look in this market, even with his team set as an underdog.

Guardians vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s MLB Best Bets column – Walk-Off Wagers – why I like Cleveland on the road:

The Cleveland Guardians are clinging to a one-game lead in the AL wild card race, holding off teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot.

Cleveland has split the first two games of this series with Baltimore, and it is a slight favorite on the road in Wednesday’s series finale.

I’m buying the Guardians in this matchup, especially since lefty Foster Griffin (an All-Star in 2026) is on the mound. Griffin has led the Guards to a 4-2 record in six starts since being acquired from the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline, and his teams are an insane 21-7 in his starts in 2026.

Meanwhile, the Orioles have been unable to win many of Shane Baz’s outings (7-21), even though the righty has posted a respectable 3.91 ERA. Baz has led the O’s to just two wins in 11 starts since July 1 despite the fact that he’s posted a 3.47 ERA during that stretch.

Baltimore had a six-game skid last week that may have cost it any chance at making the playoffs, and I’m not expecting a ton of run support for Baz now, especially Griffin (3.26 ERA).

Pick: Guardians Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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