Guardians vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for ALCS Game 1

The ALCS begins on Monday night, as the Tampa Bay Rays host the Cleveland Guardians in a battle between the top two seeds in the American League.

These teams took very different paths to the ALCS, as the Guardians went on a late regular season run to win the AL Central while the Rays were the best team in the American League almost all season.

Cleveland dropped back-to-back games at home to open the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox, making it a long shot to win the series. On Saturday night, the Guardians became the first team since 2017 to erase a 2-0 deficit in the ALDS, winning at home behind a two-run homer from Jose Ramirez.

JOSÉ RAMÍREZ!

GUARDIANS TAKE THE FIRST LEAD OF GAME 5! pic.twitter.com/Z0zoqm513R
— MLB (@MLB) October 11, 2026

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay rolled to the No. 1 seed in the American League, and it swept the New York Yankees in the ALDS behind some elite pitching performances.

One of those performances was an eight-inning, one-hit, 10-strikeout showing from Drew Rasmussen, who is getting the ball in Game 1. He was 16-5 in the regular season with a 2.67 ERA.

He’ll take on Cleveland’s Foster Griffin, who went just 2.2 innings in Game 3 of the ALDS. The lefty had a 3.60 ERA and made the All-Star team in the regular season.

So, who has the edge in Game 1?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Game 1 of the ALCS.

Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Guardians +1.5 (-157)
Rays -1.5 (+130)

Moneyline

Guardians: +141
Rays: -171

Total

6.5 (Over -124/Under +103)

Guardians vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

Cleveland: Foster Griffin (15-6, 3.60 ERA, 3.38 playoff ERA in 2026)
Tampa Bay: Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.00 playoff ERA in 2026)

Guardians vs. Rays How to Watch

Date: Monday, Oct. 12
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Tropicana Field
How to Watch (TV): TBS/truTV
Series: Tied 0-0

Guardians vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Drew Rasmussen 6+ Strikeouts (-128)

During the regular season, the Guardians averaged just 7.83 strikeouts per game, but Rasmussen recorded six or more K’s in both of his starts against them.

The righty had nine K’s and allowed just one hit in his last start against Cleveland, and he dominated the New York Yankees in the ALDS, striking out 10 in 8.0 innings of work in Game 1.

Rasmussen ranked in the 75th percentile in strikeout percentage in the regular season, and he’s worked deep into games time and time again for Tampa Bay.

This prop has come down with the Guardians' low strikeout rate, but I still think Rasmussen is alive to get there. He has six or more K’s in 16 of his 31 outings (including playoffs) in 2026.

Guardians vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Tampa Bay was a much worse team offensively against left-handed pitching (25th in OPS) during the regular season, but it did have a solid offensive showing against Max Fried in Game 3 of the ALDS.

The question really becomes: How long will Griffin actually be in this game?

The All-Star southpaw had an extremely short leash in Game 3 of the ALDS, and the Guardians may want to lean on a bullpen that has a 2.67 ERA this postseason and was No. 6 in bullpen ERA during the regular season.

The Rays went 21-9 straight up Rasmussen’s starts during the regular season (1-0 in the playoffs), and it was a dominant team at home, going 29 games over .500. The Rays swept New York in the ALDS, and the Guardians were taxed in the ALDS having to go to a full five games.

I think the rest helps the Rays’ pitching staff secure a Game 1 victory.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-171 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google