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Guardians vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for ALCS Game 2

Freddy Peralta and the Rays are home favorites against the Guardians.
Freddy Peralta and the Rays are home favorites against the Guardians.
Freddy Peralta and the Rays are home favorites against the Guardians. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Cleveland Guardians went into Tropicana Field and stole Game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night.

The Guardians have now won four straight games after falling behind 0-2 in the ALDS against the White Sox, and have a chance to take a 2-0 lead back home if they can take another one in Tampa.

The Rays have now tasted defeat for the first time this postseason after sweeping the Yankees in their ALDS matchup. That gave Tampa Bay four days off before the ALCS, while the Guardians have had four days off all postseason. It’s worth keeping that rest advantage in mind as this series moves along.

Who will take Game 2 on Tuesday night?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Guardians vs. Rays Game 2 on Tuesday, Oct. 13.

Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

  • Guardians +1.5 (-199)
  • Rays -1.5 (+163)

Moneyline

  • Guardians +111
  • Rays -133

Total

  • 7 (Over -105/Under -115)

Guardians vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

  • Guardians: Parker Messick (12-9, 2.56 ERA)
  • Rays: Freddy Peralta (10-11, 4.42 ERA )

Parker Messick made two starts in the ALDS, allowing two runs on four hits in 4.1 innings in Game 1, and then lasting just 2.1 innings with two runs on two hits with four walks in Game 4. He’s now on full rest ahead of his ALCS debut.

Freddy Peralta was pulled in the fifth inning of his ALDS Game 2 start against the Yankees after allowing a solo home run on three hits with one walk and three strikeouts. The right-hander threw just 66 pitches and has now had a week off before this start.

Guardians vs. Rays How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, Oct. 13.
  • Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Tropicana Field
  • How to Watch (TV): TBS
  • Guardians record: 85-77 (4-2)
  • Rays record: 98-64 (3-1)

Guardians vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

  • Freddy Peralta OVER 13.5 Outs (-129)

Let’s first address Freddy Peralta’s first start this postseason as he only went 4.2 innings against the Yankees. Not only does that still cash this prop, but he was only pulled due to the red-hot Ben Rice coming up with two men on base and two outs. I don’t see the Guardians putting him in a similar situation.

Peralta completed at least five innings in his final seven starts of the regular season, and recorded OVER 13.5 outs in his last nine starts with the Rays. The only time the Rays pulled him before recording 13.5 outs was in his team debut at Coors Field.

I’m surprised that this line is set so low, and would still take the OVER 14.5 outs if there is line movement before first pitch.

Guardians vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

It looked like there wouldn't be much scoring in Game 1 as the Tampa Bay Rays held a 2-0 lead through five innings. However, the Guardians scored one in the sixth and seventh, two in the eighth, and three in the ninth inning to put the game away, and to fly over the total.

I’m not expecting another high-scoring game this time around.

Of the six matchups in the regular season, only one had more than five runs. In fact, outside of the Rays’ 11-3 win on July 24, these teams combined for 14 runs in their other five games.

Parker Messick didn’t look great against the White Sox, but he was still able to limit some damage. He did start in both regular-season series against the Rays, allowing one run in each outing of 5.2 innings and 6.2 innings with a total of nine hits, two walks, and 15 strikeouts.

It’ll be Freddy Peralta on the other side. The former Brewers ace struggled with the Mets, but the Rays did what they’re known to do and helped get the pitcher back on track. He was 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 starts in Tampa Bay, but a pristine 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA (3 ER in 34 IP) across his final six regular-season starts. 

This should be a good pitching matchup and a lower-scoring game in Tampa Bay.

Pick: UNDER 7 (-115)


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Published | Modified
Ryan Gilbert
RYAN GILBERT

Ryan is a sports betting writer at Sports Illustrated. He has experience working for NHL.com, NBC Sports, Covers, and more throughout his decade in the industry. As a Philadelphia native, he understands the passion and pain that come with being a sports fan.

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