Guardians vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for ALCS Game 6

The Tampa Bay Rays are just one win away from the World Series, as they knocked off the Cleveland Guardians for the second straight game on Sunday evening in Cleveland.

Tampa Bay got to lefty Parker Messick early, loading the bases in the first inning and drawing first blood in a 3-1 win. The Guardians’ bats fell silent against Rays ace Drew Rasmussen, and they have a tough matchup ahead in Game 6 with Freddy Peralta set to take the mound.

Cleveland is expected to go with a bullpen game on Monday night in Tampa Bay, with right-hander Gavin Williams lined up to go in Game 7 – if the Guards can force one – on Tuesday.

Cleveland took Games 1 and 3 in this series, but it dropped back-to-back games at home, putting the Rays in a prime spot to win this series. Tampa Bay dominated at home in the regular season, going 55-26 before winning both home games in the ALDS against the New York Yankees.

Tampa Bay is just 1-1 at home in this series, but it seems to have figured out a Guardians bullpen that has been taxed several days in a row with Messick and Foster Griffin both lasting less than four innings in Games 4 and 5.

Can Cleveland bounce back to force a winner-take-all Game 7? The Guardians are +122 underdogs in Game 6, and it’s possible that line could shift depending on Cleveland’s final pitching plan on Monday.

Here’s a look at the odds, probable pitchers, prop bets and my prediction for Game 6 of the ALCS.

Guardians vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Guardians +1.5 (-196)
Rays -1.5 (+161)

Moneyline

Guardians: +22
Rays: -147

Total

6.5 (Over -114/Under -106)

Guardians vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

Cleveland: TBA
Tampa Bay: Freddy Peralta (1-0, 0.79 ERA in 2026 playoffs)

The Guardians have not announced a starter for Game 6 of the ALCS, but they are not expected to start Gavin Williams on short rest. Williams would likely be the team’s Game 7 starter if it’s able to win on Monday.

Guardians vs. Rays How to Watch

Date: Monday, Oct. 19
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Tropicana Field
How to Watch (TV): TBS, truTV
Series: Tampa Bay leads 3-2

Guardians vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Hits (-174)

This postseason, Guardians All-Star Jose Ramirez has easily been one of their best bats.

He’s hitting .324 overall and has seven hits in this series against Tampa Bay. While Ramirez did not pick up a hit against Freddy Peralta in Game 2 (he was 0-for-2 against him with a walk), he is 2-for-6 in his regular-season career against the Rays righty.

Ramirez has a ton of playoff experience, and he only has one game (Game 4 of the ALCS) without a hit since the Guardians went on their winning streak in Game 3 of the ALDS.

I don’t mind betting on one of the hottest bats in the postseason at this price on Monday night.

Guardians vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Cleveland may have squandered a chance to win this series by losing back-to-back games at home, and it’ll be at a disadvantage on the mound with Peralta starting for the Rays.

In the playoffs, Peralta has allowed just one run – a solo homer against New York – and he’s pitched 6.2 scoreless innings in two outings against Cleveland. On top of that, the veteran right-hander allowed just four hits in a gem in Game 2 of this series.

To end the regular season, Peralta was red hot, posting a 0.79 ERA over his final six starts, leading the Rays to a 6-0 record. They’ve also won both of his starts in the playoffs.

The Rays have been money at home all season, and they weathered the storm in Cleveland to come home up 3-2.

I don’t see the Guardians’ bullpen holding up given how much it has been forced to pitch in this series. Tampa Bay is one of the peskier offenses in MLB, posting the No. 2 batting average in the regular season and the No. 3 batting average (.232) in the playoffs.

At home, the Rays were 55-26 in the regular season and 3-1 in the playoffs. I think they stay hot after back-to-back wins.

Pick: Rays Moneyline (-147 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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