Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 13

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are both within one game of the final wild card spot in the American League heading into Thursday afternoon’s series finale.

Cleveland took Game 2 of this series on Wednesday night, moving to just one game back of the Texas Rangers for the final wild card spot. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Minnesota Twins (another AL Central team) are both just 0.5 games back heading into Thursday’s action.

Detroit is set as an underdog in this series finale, as the Guardians have lefty Parker Messick (2.57 ERA) on the mound against Detroit’s Keider Montero (3.38 ERA). Both of these starters have pitched pretty well in the 2026 season, ranking in the 86th percentile (Messick) and 70th percentile (Montero) in expected ERA.

So, how should bettors attack this AL Central battle with wild card positioning on the line?

I’m eyeing a player prop and a game pick for this series finale.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Guardians -1.5 (+141)
Tigers +1.5 (-171)

Moneyline

Guardians: -124
Tigers: +116

Total

8 (Over -118/Under -102)

Guardians vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

Cleveland: Parker Messick (9-6, 2.57 ERA)
Detroit: Keider Montero (8-7, 3.38 ERA)

Guardians vs. Tigers How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Aug. 13
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Comerica Park
How to Watch (TV): CLEGuardians.TV/Tigers.TV
Guardians record: 59-62
Tigers record: 59-61

Guardians vs. Tigers Best MLB Prop Bets

Guardians Best MLB Prop Bet

Keider Montero UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (-169)

This season, Montero has appeared in 25 games (some out of the bullpen), striking out 86 batters in 122.1 innings of work.

The right-hander ranks in just the 14th percentile in strikeout percentage, the ninth percentile in whiff percentage and the 17th percentile in chase rate. So, he’s struggling to generate swings and misses despite ranking in the 70th percentile in expected ERA.

Montero struck out just one batter across five innings in his last appearance against the Guardians, who rank in the top half of MLB in strikeout per game. Overall, Montero has just 10 outings this season with four or more K’s.

He’s an easy fade candidate on Thursday afternoon, even if he’s able to give the Tigers some length in this matchup.

Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction and Pick

These two teams have combined for 10 runs in each of the first two games of this series, and the Tigers are the No. 1 team in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) over the last 30 days.

Despite that, I’m taking the UNDER in Thursday’s matinee matchup.

Messick has been lights out in the 2026 season, earning the first All-Star nod of his MLB career. Since July 1, the lefty has a 1.77 ERA across six starts, and he ranks in the 86th percentile in expected ERA, 84th percentile in barrel percentage and the 85th percentile in hard-hit percentage.

On top of that, Messick has allowed three or fewer runs in 20 of his 23 appearances this season.

Montero hasn't been as dominant, but he does have a strong ERA, FIP and xERA and rarely issues free passes (90th percentile in walk percentage). So, the Guardians may struggle to generate offense, as they rank 22nd in MLB in wRC+ and 28th in OPS.

The UNDER has hit in 53.5 percent of the Tigers’ games this season, including 57.1 percent of their home games.

Even with Detroit’s recent offensive surge, I trust Messick and Montero to keep these offenses in check in the early going on Thursday.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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