Heat vs. Hawks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Oct. 28

Could there already be trouble in Miami?

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Miami Heat tenure is off to a rough start as the team has dropped four games in a row, including a loss at home as 8.5-point favorites against Dallas on Monday.

The Heat are one of the five worst teams in the league in net rating to open the season, and the Bam Adebayo-Giannis fit has been clunky to say the least. Still, it’s a long season, and Miami has a winnable game on the road against the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night.

Atlanta is off to a 2-2 start, losing back-to-back games to the Houston Rockets, including one on Monday. Jalen Johnson has gotten off to a big start for the Hawks, building on his first All-Star berth in the 2025-26 season.

After making the playoffs last season, Atlanta made some minor upgrades in the offseason, adding Jock Landale, Aaron Wiggins, Lu Dort and rookie Kingston Flemings. The Hawks are in the playoff mix in the East, and they’re favored in this divisional matchup.

Should bettors trust them to cover?

I’m eyeing a player prop and a game pick for this Southeast Division clash on Oct. 28.

Heat vs. Hawks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Heat +2.5 (-110)
Hawks -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Heat: +120
Haws: -142

Total

241.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Hawks How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 28
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: State Farm Arena
How to Watch (TV): PSN, Atlanta News First, NBA League Pass
Heat record: 0-4
Hawks record: 2-2

Heat vs. Hawks Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Simone Fontecchio – doubtful
Pelle Larsson – probable

Hawks Injury Report

RayJ Dennis – questionable
Zuby Ejiofor – questionable
Mouhamed Gueye – out
Jock Landale – available
Aaron Wiggins – questionable
Henri Veesaar – out
Jalen Wilson – questionable

Heat vs. Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet

Hawks Best NBA Prop Bet

Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-162)

In today’s edition of my best NBA props for SI Betting, I shared why Alexander-Walker has a great matchup against Miami:

Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker had a career year in the 2025-26 campaign, and he’s off to a strong start this season, averaging 18.8 points per game while shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 38.2 percent from 3.

Alexander-Walker is taking nearly nine shots per game from beyond the arc, building on his 2025-26 season when he shot 39.9 percent from 3 on 8.1 attempts per game.

Now, he takes on a Miami Heat team that is 27th in opponent 3-point percentage and 30th in opponent 3s made per game so far this season. NAW has at least seven 3-point attempts in every game, hitting four or more 3s in two of them. He’s a solid prop target against a Heat defense that has yet to find its footing in the Giannis Antetokounmpo era.

Heat vs. Hawks Prediction and Pick

Miami is just 28th in the league in net rating this season, and it hasn’t been able to get going on offense around Giannis.

The Heat haven’t won a game all season, and I don’t love the idea of laying points with them against a playoff-caliber opponent in Atlanta.

The Hawks’ two losses are to an undefeated Houston team, and Atlanta still ranks in the top 10 in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating while going 2-2 against the spread.

Miami’s poor 3-point defense is also a major concern against a team that is 10th in 3-pointers made per game third in attempts. The Hawks may be able to overwhelm the Heat from 3, as the Miami offense doesn’t have enough proven playmaking to really win high-scoring games.

Pick: Hawks +2.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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