Heat vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Nov. 5

Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors have won five games in a row, and they’re coming off back-to-back off days heading into Thursday’s matchup with the Miami Heat.

Miami is just 3-5 to open the 2026-27 season, and it barely beat the Los Angeles Clippers (who have just one win) in overtime on Wednesday night. Former Warrior Klay Thompson capped a 30-point night for the Heat with a game-winning 3 in OT, though Miami failed to cover the spread once again in the win.

Now, the Heat have a quick turnaround against a Golden State team that is in the top five in the league in offensive rating and has completely turned around an 0-3 start. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg has been one of the most impressive young players in the league, and the Warriors are favored at home on Thursday as they look to extend this winning streak.

Miami may end up being short-handed in this matchup, as Giannis Antetokounmpo (wrist) was on the injury report before playing against the Clips and left the game with his wrist heavily taped on Wednesday night.

Let’s take a look at the odds for this game, a player prop to bet and my prediction for the second of two NBA games on Nov. 5.

Heat vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Heat +7.5 (-114)
Warriors -7.5 (-106)

Moneyline

Heat: +230
Warriors: -281

Total

235.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Warriors How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Nov. 5
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Chase Center
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Heat record: 3-5
Warriors record: 5-3

Heat vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Warriors Injury Report

Jimmy Butler III – out
Moses Moody – out
Kristaps Porzingis – out
Gui Santos – out

Heat vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

Steph Curry OVER 4.5 3-Pointers Made (+125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Curry is a great prop target against this Miami defense:

Curry is off to a fast start in the 2026-27 NBA season, averaging 30.0 points per game while shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3-point range.

Now, Steph takes on a Miami Heat team that is playing the second night of a back-to-back after barely winning in overtime against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Heat are likely going to rest some veterans – like Klay Thompson – in this game, and the Warriors are heavily favored to pick up a win.

However, I think the best bet in this matchup is on Curry’s 3-pointers, as he’s been on fire from beyond the arc, knocking down five or more shots from deep in three straight games. The greatest shooter of all-time, Curry is averaging 10.5 3-point attempts per game this season, which gives him a strong floor against this Heat defense.

Through eight games, the Heat rank dead last in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game (17.1) and opponent 3-point percentage (40.5 percent). It doesn’t get much better for Curry, who has seen his minutes increase as the season has progressed.

He should torch this Miami defense, which lacks elite perimeter defenders outside of Davion Mitchell.

Heat vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

The Warriors are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning five games in a row to move to fourth in the league in offensive rating and 13th in net rating in the first two-plus weeks of the season.

Meanwhile, the Heat have just three wins and failed to cover as road favorites against a Clippers team that has one win (over the Sacramento Kings) in the 2026-27 season.

Giannis is dealing with a wrist injury that could hold him out of this game, this line could move further towards Golden State if he doesn’t play. The Heat have not found their way on defense – a shocking statement for an Erik Spoelstra-coached team – ranking 26th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent points per game.

While Miami’s offense has shown some signs of life after an 0-4 start, this team would take a massive step back without Antetokounmpo on that end of the floor.

I am buying the Warriors’ recent run with Yaxel Lendeborg, Curry and others leading the way, and Golden State has the rest advantage in this matchup, as it last played on Monday.

I’ll lay the points with a Warriors team that is 6-2 against the spread so far this season.

Pick: Warriors -7.5 (-106 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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