Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Steph Curry, Heat vs. Warriors, Magic vs. Suns)

Thursday night in the NBA is the calm before the storm of NBA Cup games on Friday, as only four teams are in action.

This week has been an anomaly in the NBA schedule, as Election Day on Tuesday led to 15 NBA games on Monday night and 14 on Wednesday, setting up a lopsided day of action on Nov. 5.

Still, we’ve seen some awesome performances, including one that altered the NBA MVP odds this season.

Dew’s Review: Victor Wembanyama stole the show in a 14-game slate on Wednesday night, dropping 52 points, 24 rebounds and eight blocks – the first 50-point, 20-rebound, five-block game game since 1974 – in a one-point win over the Dallas Mavericks. He’s now the favorite to win the NBA MVP this season, taking a slight lead over Los Angeles Lakers star Luka Doncic, who had another 40-point game on Wednesday in a win over the Sacramento Kings. The NBA MVP race is shaping up to be a great one with five players set a 10/1 or better through the first two-plus weeks of the season. Still, Wemby – the preseason favorite – holds a slight edge because of his elite play on both ends of the floor.

When it comes to Thursday’s action, I’m eyeing a pair of bets, including one for the Golden State Warriors, who are one of the hottest teams in the league.

Peter’s Point: Can the Warriors make it six wins in a row on Thursday night? Golden State looked dead in the water to open the season, going 0-3, but it’s won five games in a row and the play of rookie Yaxel Lendeborg may have extended the Steph Curry era. Curry is averaging 30.0 points per game this season, and the Warriors are favored at home against a Miami Heat team that needed overtime to beat the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night.

Wednesday was a bit of a step back in Peter’s Points, as we fell into the negatives this season despite a 24-23 record. Let’s turn things around with a prop for Steph Curry and a pick for both of these games on Thursday night.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 24-23 (-2.22 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1645-1551-27 (+27.94 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Steph Curry OVER 4.5 3-Pointers Made (+125)
Orlando Magic-Golden State Warriors Parlay (-145)

Steph Curry OVER 4.5 3-Pointers Made (+125)

Curry is off to a fast start in the 2026-27 NBA season, averaging 30.0 points per game while shooting 46.8 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3-point range.

Now, Steph takes on a Miami Heat team that is playing the second night of a back-to-back after barely winning in overtime against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Heat are likely going to rest some veterans – like Klay Thompson – in this game, and the Warriors are heavily favored to pick up a win.

However, I think the best bet in this matchup is on Curry’s 3-pointers, as he’s been on fire from beyond the arc, knocking down five or more shots from deep in three straight games. The greatest shooter of all-time, Curry is averaging 10.5 3-point attempts per game this season, which gives him a strong floor against this Heat defense.

Through eight games, the Heat rank dead last in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game (17.1) and opponent 3-point percentage (40.5 percent). It doesn’t get much better for Curry, who has seen his minutes increase as the season has progressed.

He should torch this Miami defense, which lacks elite perimeter defenders outside of Davion Mitchell.

Orlando Magic-Golden State Warriors Parlay (-145)

I’m taking a little two-pick parlay on Thursday night, but I’ve opted to move the line for the Orlando vs. Phoenix game to pair with the Warriors on the moneyline. Still, the Magic should be in a good spot to cover on the road.

Orlando Magic +10.5 vs. Phoenix Suns

The Suns are off to an awful start in the 2026-27 season, losing to Portland on Wednesday to drop to 1-5.

So far this season, the Suns rank 30th in defensive rating and 25th in net rating, and they’re really missed starting center Mark Williams down low. There’s a chance the Suns could be short-handed on the second night of a back-to-back, so I don’t want to take them as favorites – even against the two-win Magic.

The injury bug has once again crushed Orlando with Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs sidelined, and the Magic rank in the bottom 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating.

Yet, I think they’re equipped to beat a Suns team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone and has just one win (against the Steph Curry-less Warriors) in the 2026-27 season.

Orlando still has Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane to run the show, and the Suns are the only team in the NBA that has yet to cover the spread this season.

I think moving this line to 10.5 gives us enough of a cushion for the Magic on Thursday.

Golden State Warriors Moneyline vs. Miami Heat

The Warriors are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning five games in a row to move to fourth in the league in offensive rating and 13th in net rating in the first two-plus weeks of the season.

Meanwhile, the Heat have just three wins and failed to cover as road favorites against a Clippers team that has one win (over the Sacramento Kings) in the 2026-27 season.

Giannis is dealing with a wrist injury that could hold him out of this game, this line could move further towards Golden State if he doesn’t play. The Heat have not found their way on defense – a shocking statement for an Erik Spoelstra-coached team – ranking 26th in defensive rating and 27th in opponent points per game.

While Miami’s offense has shown some signs of life after an 0-4 start, this team would take a massive step back without Antetokounmpo on that end of the floor.

I am buying the Warriors’ recent run with Yaxel Lendeborg, Curry and others leading the way, and Golden State has the rest advantage in this matchup, as it last played on Monday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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