Houston Texans Win Total Projection for 2026 Season (Are the Texans the Best in the AFC South?)

The Houston Texans have had near-identical seasons three years in a row. They have made the playoffs all three years and won a single playoff game before eventually being eliminated in the Divisional Round.

Last year, the Texans improved on their record, finishing at 12-5, two wins better than in 2023 and 2024, but unlike the two previous seasons, they didn't capture the division title. The Jacksonville Jaguars won the AFC South at 14-3.

The Texans are desperate to step out of their current standing in the second tier of AFC teams and are hoping to establish themselves as a true AFC contender in 2026. Let's dive into their projected win total for the upcoming NFL campaign.

2026 Houston Texans Win Total Projection

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

OVER 9.5 Wins (-125)
UNDER 9.5 Wins (+105)

The Texans' projected win total for the 2026 season is set at 9.5, with the OVER juiced to -125. That implies a 55.56% probability that they finish at 10-7 or better. It's good for the best win total in the division, with the Jaguars in second at 8.5. The Texans are also favorites to win the AFC South at +110.

There's no question that the Texans have arguably the best defense in the NFL. They finished second in DVOA last season behind only the Seahawks, and they also allowed the second-fewest points per game, giving up just 17.3. Their top pass-rusher, Will Anderson Jr., is also second on the odds list to win Defensive Player of the Year this season.

That leaves the biggest and only question mark surrounding this team being their offense. They have a talented wide receiver room featuring Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel, and they added David Montgomery this offseason to lead their backfield. The play of C.J. Stroud is going to be under scrutiny this season, as well as the performance of the offensive line.

Stroud was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, and he finished eighth in MVP voting. Unfortunately, the Texans' quarterback has regressed in the two seasons since. He averaged only 217.2 passing yards per game, throwing for 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 14 starts. Some blame can be pointed at the offensive line and the questionable play-calling, but at the end of the day, Stroud needs to make things happen if the Texans want to take the next step.

I have hopes that the Texans' offense will settle into form with Nick Caley entering his second year as the team's offensive coordinator. If they do, they're going to have a strong year backed by the best defense in the conference.

I'll bet the OVER on their win total in 2026.

Pick: OVER 9.5 Wins (-125) via DraftKings

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