Jac Caglianone Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction (Can Kansas City Slugger Put Up Royal Performance?)

Jac Caglianone didn’t fare too well during a brief rookie season last year. He hit just .157 with seven home runs in 62 games. The Kansas City Royals slugger has been better this year, though, hitting .260 with 15 home runs through 90 contests.

The 23-year-old slugger really came into his own as the weather warmed up in June. He had six home runs in a five-game span, including two multi-homer games. He’s only hit one home run in 16 games since then, and that came on Friday in Baltimore.

Caglianone is going to have to make the most of his swings in a crowded field. In the new Home Run Derby format, each player gets 20 swings in the first round, and then 15 swings in the second and final rounds.

Let’s take a look at Caglianone’s odds to win the Home Run Derby in 2026, as well as my prediction for his performance.

Jac Caglianone Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win: +700
To Make Final: +300
Round 1 Total: 9.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
To Make the Semifinals: -115
To Have Longest Home Run: +500

Jac Caglianone Home Run Derby Prediction

As mentioned above, Caglianone has struggled recently. Of course, anyone can get hot against batting-practice pitching in the Home Run Derby, but the youngster could have some nerves in his debut at the event.

There is always at least one player who unexpectedly flops in the Home Run Derby. Caglianone may just be that guy this year.

Caglianone is built to perform well at Citizens Bank Park, which slightly favors left-handed hitters over right-handed hitters. However, so is two-thirds of the eight-man field.

The Royals slugger has also been a bit better at home than on the road this season. He has nine home runs and a .798 OPS in 46 games at Kauffman Stadium, and six home runs and a .764 OPS in 44 games on the road.

It very well could blow up in my face with Caglianone going deep or even winning it all, but you have to fade some players in this event.

Pick(s): Caglianone Round 1 Homers UNDER 9.5 (-115)

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