Jordan Walker Home Run Derby Odds and Prediction (Can Cardinals Star Upset Philly Favorites?)

Jordan Walker has finally broke out for the St. Louis Cardinals.

After hitting 16 home runs during his rookie season, the third-baseman turned outfielder only had 11 longballs in 162 games over his last two years.

Walker has found his stroke this year, though. He’s hitting .294 with 22 home runs and a MLB-leading 74 RBI at the All-Star break.

The Home Run Derby has moved away from its timed system in recent years. It’s back to a more familiar swing system, with each player getting a certain number of swings in each round: 20 in the first, and then 15 in each of the second and final rounds.

Let’s take a look at Walker’s odds to win the Home Run Derby in 2026, as well as my prediction for his performance.

Jordan Walker Home Run Derby Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

To Win: +800
To Make Final: +350
Round 1 Total: 9.5 (Over +110/Under -130)
To Make the Semifinals: +100
To Have Longest Home Run: +400

Jordan Walker Home Run Derby Prediction

Walker has been a streaky hitter in terms of home runs this season. He had two three-game streaks in a seven-game span in early April, then had just two longballs in his next 22 games. The slugger also had a streak of just three home runs in 31 games from May 25 to July 1.

The Cardinals outfielder has found some consistency since then, hitting four home runs in his last 12 games, but none in his last three contests.

Walker is one of a few right-handed bats in this year’s field. Citizens Bank Park has a home run factor of 110 for right-handed hitters and 116 for left-handers this season, according to Baseball Savant.

That could give the edge to a left-handed hitter, or it could just be noise in an event like this.

I think Walker’s odds to win it all are a bit long at +800, and we’re getting plus odds for him to hit double-digit home runs in the first round.

Pick(s): Walker to Win (+800); Walker Round 1 Homers OVER 9.5 (+110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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