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Kelsey Plum Trade Alters WNBA Finals Odds for Sparks, Mercury and More
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A blockbuster WNBA trade was completed in the early hours on Sunday morning, as All-Star guard Kelsey Plum is headed to the Phoenix Mercury ahead of the stretch run of the regular season.
Plum is in the final season of her contract and will be an unrestricted free agent this coming offseason, so it makes sense that the struggling Sparks wanted to move on from her and add some future assets.
Los Angeles is acquiring Monique Akoa Makani, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick from the Mercury in exchange for Plum.
BREAKING: The Los Angeles Sparks are trading five-time All-Star Kelsey Plum to the Phoenix Mercury for Monique Akoa Makani, a 2027 first round pick and a 2028 second-rounder, sources tell me and @kendra__andrews. pic.twitter.com/0HvWAsrPGJ
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) August 2, 2026
This deal has shake up the odds to win the WNBA Finals in the 2026 season, even though both the Sparks and Mercury are currently outside the playoff picture. Plum was also considered an option for the Golden State Valkyries, who are in the mix for the No. 1 seed in the W.
Los Angeles dropped from +20000 to +50000 to win the title after the deal, and it's now facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs. The Sparks are 5.5 games out of the No. 8 seed and seven games under .500 in the 2026 campaign.
The Plum trade is a signal that Los Angeles' win-now attempt failed, especially after it traded former top pick Rickea Jackson to the Chicago Sky for Ariel Atkins in the offseason. Los Angeles has failed to make the playoffs since trading for Plum in a deal with the Las Vegas Aces, and it appears that the franchise is ready for a reset.
Meanwhile, the Mercury made a jump in the odds, going from +35000 to +20000 to win the Finals. Phoenix is currently the No. 12 seed in the W, sitting six games out of a playoff spot, but it clearly believes in the core in Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas by making this all-in move.
The Mercury made the WNBA Finals in the 2025 season, but they were promptly swept by the Aces. After losing Satou Sabally in free agency, the Mercury have needed another scorer alongside Copper.
Plum, who hasn't played since late June due to a leg injury, certainly fits that bill. She's averaging 23.9 points, 2.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists across 12 games this season, shooting 52.7 percent from the field and 38.3 percent from 3. It'll be interesting to see if the acquisition of Plum sparks the Mercury on a late-season run to the playoffs.
The Valkyries also saw their odds to win the Finals move after the Plum deal, as they were rumored to be interested in the five-time All-Star.
While the Valkyries are considered a possible landing spot for Plum, a source familiar with the situation told ESPN the Valkyries are reluctant to part with multiple “key contributors” to their roster that the Sparks would want to make the deal work. https://t.co/bE1ZQlS0VY
— Kendra Andrews (@kendra__andrews) July 31, 2026
Golden State could use a true No. 1 scoring option, as it has relied heavily on its defense (No. 1 in defensive rating) so far this season. Plum would have been a great fit in the backcourt alongside Veronica Burton, and the Valkyries actually dropped from +850 to +1000 to win the title after missing out on Plum.
The star guard should be a massive boost to a Phoenix offense that is No. 12 in the league in offensive rating in 2026.
Plum returned to practice late last month with the Sparks, which is a sign that she could return soon from the leg injury that has cost her most of the 2026 season.
BREAKING: Kelsey Plum is officially practicing with the Sparks today for the first time since suffering a lower leg injury in late June.
— John W. Davis (@johnwdavis) July 30, 2026
Phoenix's next game is on Monday against the Chicago Sky, and it's possible that Plum could make her team debut in that matchup.
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Peter is the associate managing editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, betting and more. He is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.