Knicks vs. Spurs Game 1 Prediction: Does San Antonio Have Edge in NBA Finals Opener?

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is just a day away, as the highly-anticipated series between the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs will tip at 8:30 p.m. EST on June 3.

San Antonio is favored to win the Finals after eliminating the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference Finals, but no team is hotter than the New York Knicks at the moment.

New York just put together the best 11-game stretch in NBA history (by point differential), sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers in the last two rounds to reach the Finals for the first time since 1999.

This week, I’ve already shared my pick for the entire series, and in the process of working on some Game 1 best bets, I’ve arrived on the side that I believe I’ll be taking on Wednesday night.

The odds for Game 1 have remained the same since they opened, as the Knicks are 4.5-point road underdogs against the Spurs. New York won two of the three meetings between these teams in the regular season, but it did lose the lone matchup in San Antonio.

Knicks vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total for Game 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Knicks +4.5 (-110)
Spurs -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Knicks: +160
Spurs: -192

Total

218.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

On Wednesday, I’ll have a betting preview, best bets and prop bets for Game 1, but I thought it would be fun to share my early lean for Wednesday’s series opener for fans looking for an idea how this game will go, and bettors looking to lock in a pick before tip off.

Knicks vs. Spurs Early Game 1 Prediction

San Antonio is coming off a tough series with the Thunder, but Game 1 is going to bring up the age-old questions: Rest vs. Rust?

New York has not played since May 25, and it did show some rust in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals after a long layoff, falling behind by 22 points in the fourth quarter against Cleveland before rallying to win.

The Knicks won’t be able to get away with that against the Spurs and their elite defense, though I’d expect more of a sense of urgency from Mike Brown’s squad on the road in a Finals matchup.

This season, San Antonio is 26-20-1 against the spread when favored on the road while the Knicks are 8-8 against the spread as road underdog. New York was just three games over .500 on the road in the regular season, but it has dropped just one road game (Game 3 against Atlanta) in the playoffs.

When it comes to Game 1, I lean with the Spurs to cover the spread.

The Knicks have the best net rating and offensive rating in the playoffs, and they’ve done everything one could ask against the inferior teams in the East. Still, San Antonio is a huge step up in competition, and the Spurs have a nice rhythm going after playing deep into the Western Conference Finals.

We’ve seen “rust” get to this New York team in the playoffs already, and a slow start on the road in San Antonio is going to be a lot tougher to overcome than one at Madison Square Garden. I do think the lack of rest could be an issue for the Spurs later in the series – especially since the Knicks may be the deeper team – but all of this off time may bite the Knicks a little in Game 1.

I also think San Antonio’s defense poses a lot of problems for New York that it’ll have to work out, and it may need a game to figure out the best way to attack Victor Wembanyama. After all, the Spurs did upset Oklahoma City in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals after slowing down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

This is going to be a long series, and I picked the Knicks to win (spoiler for those that haven’t read my series prediction piece), but I wouldn't be shocked if the Spurs win and cover in Game 1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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