Knicks vs. Spurs Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Finals (Can New York Pull Off Upset?)

Four wins away from immortality.

That is what lies ahead for the New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs in the 2026 NBA Finals after dominant runs in the playoffs.

These squads are No. 1 (New York) and No. 2 (San Antonio) in net rating this postseason, and the Spurs just completed an insanely impressive comeback against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, winning Games 6 and 7 of the Western Conference Finals to advance.

San Antonio is looking to destroy the narrative that young, inexperienced teams can’t win the NBA Finals. Most of the core, including Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell had never played in a postseason game, yet the Spurs have gone from a potential playoff team (before the season) to the favorite to win the NBA Finals.

Oddsmakers have set the Spurs as -205 favorites to win this series, even though the Knicks have won 11 games in a row to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. The last time the Knicks were in the Finals, they lost to Tim Duncan and the Spurs, so it’s a true full circle moment that Jalen Brunson and company have to take on San Antonio’s newest franchise player in Wembanyama.

New York has a major rest advantage entering this series since it swept the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it hasn’t lost a game in over a month. After falling behind 2-1 in the first round against the Atlanta Hawks, the Knicks have put together the best 11-game stretch in NBA history (by point differential) to reach the Finals.

During the regular season, New York won two of the three meetings between these teams, including the NBA Cup Championship, yet the betting market has projected it to be an underdog in the Finals for quite some time.

Will the Knicks prove people wrong and postpone the start of a potential Spurs dynasty? Could this be the coronation for Wembanyama as the world’s best player?

To understand this series better, I’ve taken a look at all of the series markets at DraftKings to break down how this series is projected to go. Then, it all culminates with my bet for who will win the NBA Finals in 2026.

Knicks vs. Spurs Series Odds

Knicks: +170
Spurs: -205

Let’s start with the odds simply to win this series. Wembanyama and Co. come in at -205 to win the title, which translates to an implied probability of 67.21 percent. Even though the Knicks have been the best team in just about every metric this postseason, oddsmakers appear to be buying the path the Spurs had to take – going through Minnesota and Oklahoma City – to make the Finals as more impressive.

Now, New York did take two of the three meetings between these teams in the regular season, but it didn’t change the odds for it to win the title throughout this playoff run, as San Antonio only fell behind New York after losing Game 5 to OKC, before it rallied to win two games in a row.

The Knicks have not been underdogs in a series yet in these playoffs, and this is the first time they won’t have home-court advantage as well.

Knicks vs. Spurs Series Correct Score Odds

Spurs in 7: +310
Spurs in 5: +380
Spurs in 6: +500
Knicks in 6: +500
Spurs in 4: +700
Knicks in 7: +700
Knicks in 5: +1200
Knicks in 4: +2000

Based on these odds, the Spurs winning the Finals in seven games is the most likely outcome (+310).

It’s notable that San Antonio winning in four games (+700) and five games (+380) comes in at better odds than any Knicks outcome outside of Knicks in 6 (+500).

New York is +1200 (an implied probability of 7.69%) to win the series in five games and +2000 (an implied probability of 4.76%) to pull off a third sweep in a row. New York dominated Philly and Cleveland to make the Finals, but the Spurs are a clear step up in class, and it would be absolutely shocking if New York swept this series.

It’s worth noting that four of the most-likely outcomes have this series going at least six games, which should foreshadow the odds for some of the upcoming markets.

Knicks vs. Spurs Series Spread

Knicks +1.5 (-140)
Spurs -1.5 (+115)

The series spread is very interesting, as these odds suggest the Knicks will at least force a Game 7 in this series. For New York to cover the 1.5-games spread, it either needs to win the series or lose in seven games. If the Spurs win in four, five or six games, New York would fall short covering this number.

These teams both have impressive postseason records – New York is 12-2 while San Antonio is 12-6 – and three of the Spurs’ losses came to OKC in the Western Conference Finals.

Knicks vs. Spurs Series Total Games

5.5 (Over -170/Under +140)

Could this series end up going the distance?

Both the correct score and series spread markets showed us that oddsmakers are expecting a long series, and now the series total is heavily juiced to OVER 5.5 games (-170). Based on those odds, there is an implied probability of 62.96 percent that this series reaches a Game 6.

Even though New York has only played one series this postseason that has gone to six or more games, the Spurs are easily the best team that the Knicks have had to face after they rolled through the Eastern Conference.

The Spurs have been tied 2-2 in each of their last two matchups (Minnesota and OKC), and that scenario happening again would guarantee that the OVER hits in this market.

Knicks vs. Spurs Series Prediction and Pick

If you already have a ticket for the Finals – I bet on the Knicks to win it all before the season – that could change your thinking in this series.

I’m not going to consider any previous bets when it comes to this pick.

During the regular season, New York won two of the three meetings between these teams, but the NBA Cup win is hard to consider since Wembanyama was returning from injury and came off the bench. At the time, the Spurs were also starting Harrison Barnes, who is now barely in the rotation with Julian Champagnie playing at a high level in the starting lineup.

Playoff basketball is different, and I don’t want to base any pick on something that happened months ago, especially since the Spurs and Knicks are both playing very differently in the postseason.

San Antonio is playing Wemby a ton of minutes, and I do wonder how much the seven-game slugfest with the Thunder fatigued this Spurs team. The Knicks have had a ton of rest in the playoffs since they’ve pulled off back-to-back sweeps, and they’re entering this series pretty healthy outside of Mitchell Robinson’s broken pinkie.

On the Spurs’ side, Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox both have dealt with injuries this postseason, and Fox did not look 100 percent throughout the OKC series. A few days off (the Spurs last played on Saturday) should help, but is it enough for him to return to his All-Star form?

A lot has been made about the Spurs’ depth, but Mitch Johnson has kind of gone away from Luke Kornet and Barnes in the rotation. Dylan Harper has been terrific off the bench this postseason, averaging 13.1 points per game in 18 games (two starts), and Keldon Johnson stepped up in a big way in Game 7. Still, the Spurs don’t have a ton of frontcourt depth to deal with some of the size the Knicks have in Robinson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby.

If Johnson’s rotation tightens in this series, there’s certainly a potential for some fatigue for a young Spurs team that has been taxed much more than New York during this run.

The Knicks’ depth is also interesting, as players like Miles McBride and Jordan Clarkson have been up and down in the playoffs while Landry Shamet couldn’t miss in the Eastern Conference Finals. I think the Knicks and Mike Brown have more players to trust off the bench, but Robinson (who is banged up) may be the only one that will have as much of an impact on this series as Harper.

I say that, but Shamet certainly swung the Cleveland series way in New York’s direction.

It’s easy to look at the Knicks’ competition this postseason and question if they’ll be able to play at the same level against the Spurs, but New York didn’t just win, it dominated. The Knicks put together the best 11-game point differential in NBA history (regular season or playoffs), and only had two losses (both by one point) while posting a plus-19.8 net rating.

Even before the series against the Thunder, the Spurs ranked behind the Knicks in offensive rating, net rating and effective field goal percentage.

San Antonio’s defense is unlike any other because of Wembanyama’s ability to play a one-man zone and totally wall off the paint, but the Knicks are uniquely equipped to draw him out, since they have multiple lineup combinations where they can stick five shooters on the floor, including Towns.

The Knicks’ chances in this series may come down to Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges and Shamet making 3s if the Spurs leave them open. That strategy worked against the Thunder, but New York has more offensive creators and more shooting than an OKC team that was without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell for most of the series.

So, I don’t think the Spurs’ game plan that slowed down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is completely applicable to Jalen Brunson. The Knicks’ star will have more players he can rely on as secondary creators, and Brunson has been more efficient than SGA was this postseason.

Sure, the Spurs have the best player in the series, but how many other Spurs players would one take before Towns, Brunson or Anunoby? I’d argue that I’d take all three of those Knicks before Stephon Castle.

On the offensive end for San Antonio, it’ll be interesting to see how Wembanyama navigates the trio of Towns, Anunoby and Robinson who will all spend time on him – at least that’s what New York did in the regular season – in this series.

Can San Antonio make enough 3s to allow Wemby the space to operate? The Spurs have struggled with turnovers in the playoffs (11th of 16 teams in turnover percentage), and the Knicks have the No. 1 offense in the postseason that certainly can take advantage of those miscues.

Ultimately, I think it’s worth noting that an OKC team that was down its No. 2 and No. 3 offensive players was able to take the Spurs to seven games and had a real chance to win the series after taking Game 5.

The Knicks may not be better than a healthy version of the Thunder, but with the way they’ve played this postseason, they’re certainly on par with the short-handed Thunder. New York’s ability to space the floor is going to be a unique challenge for San Antonio defensively, and I do think there is a huge advantage for New York with all the rest it has gotten.

The Spurs’ dynasty is coming, it just won’t start in 2026.

Give me the Knicks… in six.

Pick: Knicks in 6 (+170, +500 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google