Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 1

Game 1 of the NBA Finals is finally here!

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs play host to the New York Knicks and Jalen Brunson on Wednesday night, a rematch of the two teams that played in the 1999 NBA Finals, which was the last time New York made it this far in the postseason.

Brunson and Co. are looking to snap the Knicks’ 53-year title drought, but it won’t be easy against a 62-win Spurs team that is favored to win this series – and Game 1.

San Antonio took out the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference Finals, but it did lose two of the three meetings with New York, including the NBA Cup Championship Game, during the regular season.

New York is well-rested heading into Game 1, as it swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals and has won 11 games in a row to roll through the postseason. The Knicks have the best net rating in the league in the playoffs, and they have put together the best 11-game stretch in NBA history (by point differential) since losing Game 3 of the first round against the Atlanta Hawks.

This could be a long, hard-fought Finals between two of the premier brands in the NBA, and it all starts with Game 1.

Whether you’re looking for bets, a prediction or simply some analysis on this matchup, the SI Betting team has all our readers covered throughout the NBA Finals.

Let’s jump right into the odds, injuries, player props and a pick for Game 1 on Wednesday night.

Knicks vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Knicks +4.5 (-110)
Spurs -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Knicks: +154
Spurs: -185

Total

218.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Knicks vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, June 3
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Series: Tied 0-0

Knicks vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Knicks Injury Report

Mitchell Robinson -- questionable

Spurs Injury Report

None to report

Knicks vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-128)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Brunson is a great prop target in Game 1:

Jalen Brunson is averaging 6.6 assists per game during the Knicks’ playoff run, which is actually down from the regular season when he put up 6.8 assists per night.

Still, the All-NBA guard is averaging over 10 potential assists per game, and he’s cleared 6.5 assists in all three of his games against the Spurs in the 2025-26 season, putting up eight dimes in the Knicks’ NBA Cup win.

If the Spurs defend Brunson similarly to how they attacked Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, there are going to be a lot of playmaking opportunities for the Knicks star. SGA averaged 8.9 assists per game in the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio, and Brunson has more offensive weapons around him to rely on with the Knicks being much healthier than the Thunder were.

Even though he’s only averaging 6.6 assists per game this postseason, the Knicks star still has cleared this line in six of his 14 playoff games.

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Victor Wembanyama OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-170)

Victor Wembanyama has faced the Knicks six times in his career (including the NBA Cup loss), and he’s taken a ton of 3-pointers against them, even since Mike Brown became the head coach:

Nov. 8, 2023: 0-for-4 from 3
March 29, 2024: 4-for-9 from 3
Dec. 25, 2024: 6-for-16 from 3
Dec. 16, 2025: 2-for-6 from 3 (in 25 minutes)
Dec. 31, 2025: 2-for-2 from 3
March 1, 2026: 1-for-7 from 3

So, Wemby has taken 15 3-pointers in three games against New York this season, and he’s cleared this line in four games against the Knicks since coming into the league.

This postseason, Wembanyama is shooting 37.0 percent from 3 on 4.8 attempts per game, and he’s coming off a series with OKC where he made two or more shots from deep in five of his seven games.

The Knicks were 21st in the league in opponent 3-pointers made per game in the regular season, and I’d expect Wembanyama to be aggressive from deep in Game 1.

Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, I’m taking the Spurs to win and cover in Game 1, something I eluded to in an early prediction story on Tuesday:

The Spurs dominated at home in the regular season, but they’ve dropped at least one home game in every round in the playoffs.

Despite that, I think they’re going to win Game 1 of this series.

San Antonio’s defense was dominant against a short-handed Oklahoma City team in the Western Conference Finals, and while the Knicks have more depth and offensive talent than the Jalen Williams-less Thunder, I do think rust plays a factor in Game 1.

New York fell behind by 22 points in the first quarter of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals after a long layoff, but it was able to rally and win in overtime against a Cavs team that simply isn’t on the same level as these Spurs. If New York falls behind big on Wednesday night, a comeback against a Wemby-led defense is going to be extremely tough.

Plus, the Knicks had the benefit of playing Game 1 at home in the last two rounds against teams that won Game 7 less than 48 hours before tip off. That isn’t the case with the Spurs, who have had three days off to prepare for this series.

The Knicks struggled a bit on the road in the regular season, going 22-19 straight up, including a loss in San Antonio. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 26-20-1 against the spread when favored at Frost Bank Center.

This series is going to be an interesting chess match, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Spurs defense takes Game 1 as the Knicks get back into the swing of things after over a week off.

Pick: Spurs -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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