Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Knicks vs. Spurs, OG Anunoby)

First to four wins and basketball immortality.

That’s what is at stake beginning on Wednesday night, as the 2026 NBA Finals tip off at 8:30 p.m. EST with the San Antonio Spurs hosting the New York Knicks.

New York rolled through the Eastern Conference in the playoffs, posting the best net rating in the postseason, and it has won 11 games in a row to reach the Finals for the first time since 1999 – when it lost to the Spurs!

Meanwhile, Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs battled through a tough Western Conference, downing the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference Finals.

New York has a massive rest advantage over the Spurs, as it last played on May 25, but does bring a rust factor into play in Game 1?

Oddsmakers have the Spurs favored at home, where they went 32-8 in the regular season, including a win over New York on New Year’s Eve. The Knicks won two of the three meetings between these teams this season, taking down San Antonio at home in March and in the NBA Cup Championship game in December.

All signs point to this being a long series, and I shared my pick for the winner earlier this week here at Sports Illustrated.

Now, the time has come to give out some best bets for Game 1. As always, we’re transparent at SI Betting, and I was crushed in the Western Conference Finals, which really knocked down this season’s record. That’s why we advocate for everyone to bet responsibly.

And, what better time to turn things around than the NBA Finals?

I’m taking two props – and a side – in Game 1 on Wednesday night.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 317-287 (-12.15 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1608-1523-27 (+20.99 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-128)
OG Anunoby 20+ Points and Rebounds (-165)

San Antonio Spurs -4.5 (-110) vs. New York Knicks

The Spurs dominated at home in the regular season, but they’ve dropped at least one home game in every round in the playoffs.

Despite that, I think they’re going to win Game 1 of this series.

San Antonio’s defense was dominant against a short-handed Oklahoma City team in the Western Conference Finals, and while the Knicks have more depth and offensive talent than the Jalen Williams-less Thunder, I do think rust plays a factor in Game 1.

New York fell behind by 22 points in the first quarter of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals after a long layoff, but it was able to rally and win in overtime against a Cavs team that simply isn’t on the same level as these Spurs. If New York falls behind big on Wednesday night, a comeback against a Wemby-led defense is going to be extremely tough.

Plus, the Knicks had the benefit of playing Game 1 at home in the last two rounds against teams that won Game 7 less than 48 hours before tip off. That isn’t the case with the Spurs, who have had three days off to prepare for this series.

The Knicks struggled a bit on the road in the regular season, going 22-19 straight up, including a loss in San Antonio. Meanwhile, the Spurs are 26-20-1 against the spread when favored at Frost Bank Center.

This series is going to be an interesting chess match, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Spurs defense takes Game 1 as the Knicks get back into the swing of things after over a week off.

Jalen Brunson OVER 6.5 Assists (-128)

Jalen Brunson is averaging 6.6 assists per game during the Knicks’ playoff run, which is actually down from the regular season when he put up 6.8 assists per night.

Still, the All-NBA guard is averaging over 10 potential assists per game, and he’s cleared 6.5 assists in all three of his games against the Spurs in the 2025-26 season, putting up eight dimes in the Knicks’ NBA Cup win.

If the Spurs defend Brunson similarly to how they attacked Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, there are going to be a lot of playmaking opportunities for the Knicks star. SGA averaged 8.9 assists per game in the Western Conference Finals against San Antonio, and Brunson has more offensive weapons around him to rely on with the Knicks being much healthier than the Thunder were.

Even though he’s only averaging 6.6 assists per game this postseason, the Knicks star still has cleared this line in six of his 14 playoff games.

OG Anunoby 20+ Points and Rebounds (-165)

Knicks forward OG Anunoby is going to have a huge role in this series on both ends of the floor.

On defense, he’ll likely float to all of the Spurs’ top players, including some one-on-one matchups with Wemby.

Anunoby guarded Wembanyama a ton during the regular season, recording 34.8 partial possessions against him in the two regular season games (not including the NBA Cup) between these teams.

This postseason, the Knicks forward is averaging 19.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game while shooting 57.7 percent from the field and 48.3 percent from 3. He’s hit 20 or more points and rebounds in 10 of his 12 playoff games, only failing to clear this line in his first two games back from a hamstring injury in the series against Cleveland.

The Knicks need Anunoby to be a viable scoring option on a nightly basis, and he is taking over 11 shots per game in the playoffs. I think this line is too low for him, especially since he’s attacked the boards even more than he did in the regular season when he averaged 5.2 rebounds per game.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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