Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 2

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are no longer favored to win the NBA Finals after they dropped Game 1 to the New York Knicks on Wednesday night.

Jalen Brunson (30 points, 13 in the fourth quarter) and the Knicks rallied from a double-digit deficit early in the second half to win their 12th playoff game in a row and take a 1-0 series lead. Now, New York is a 5.5-point underdog in Game 2 after it was a 4.5-point dog in Game 1.

San Antonio has dropped a home game in every series so far in the playoffs, so this isn’t uncharted territory for the Spurs. However, a loss in Game 2 would put San Antonio in an extremely tough spot heading to New York for Game 3.

Wembanyama (6-for-21 from the field) struggled against the Knicks defense in Game 1, and neither team shot the ball particularly well. In fact, the Spurs’ best offensive player may have been rookie guard Dylan Harper, who was not on the floor in crunch time.

Instead, Mitch Johnson went with his starting lineup, but the Knicks rallied off 11 of the last 13 points in the game to secure the win.

Game 2 has a ton at stake – as any Finals game would.

Will the Spurs even the series heading into what should be a crazy environment in New York in Game 3? Can the Knicks win a 13th straight playoff game?

If you’re looking to bet on this game or simply want a prediction and some analysis, the SI Betting team has you covered through the NBA Finals.

Let’s examine the odds, some player props to consider and my prediction for Game 2 on Friday night.

Knicks vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Knicks +5.5 (-105)
Spurs -5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Knicks: +190
Spurs: -230

Total

214.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Knicks vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Friday, June 5
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Series: Knicks lead 1-0

Knicks vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Knicks Injury Report

Mitchell Robinson -- probable

Spurs Injury Report

None to to report

Knicks vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

Karl-Anthony Towns 11+ Rebounds (-147)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Towns is a great prop target in Game 2:

Karl-Anthony Towns played a terrific Game 1 for New York, scoring 18 points and pulling down 12 rebounds while holding Wembanyama in check on offense.

If there’s one thing Towns is going to do every night, it’s hit the boards, as he’s averaging 10.7 rebounds on 16.9 rebound chances per game in the playoffs. While foul trouble in the second round against Philadelphia has lowered KAT’s postseason average, he still has 11 or more boards in eight of his 15 playoff games.

The All-Star big man avoided foul trouble and played over 34 minutes in Game 1, so hopefully he can duplicate that showing on Friday. In the regular season, Towns averaged 11.9 rebounds per game to lead the Knicks.

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

De’Aaron Fox UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-165)

De’Aaron Fox has really struggled shooting the 3-ball in the NBA Playoffs, and that continued in Game 1 of the Finals.

Fox was 0-for-4 from beyond the arc in that matchup, and he’s now just 23-for-78 (29.5 percent) from 3 in the postseason.

So, I’m fading him in Game 2 against the Knicks, especially since Dylan Harper (16 points in Game 1) outplayed him. There’s a chance Mitch Johnson gives Harper a little more run on Friday if Fox struggles again.

I don’t want to put a ton of blame on Fox – he’s been dealing with an ankle injury – but his lack of offense has hurt the Spurs at times during this run. Overall, the All-Star guard has made one or fewer 3-pointers in 11 of his 17 appearances this postseason.

New York is fifth in the playoffs in opponent 3s made per game, and Fox had to deal with OG Anunoby quite a bit in Game 1. I think the star guard is an easy fade candidate, especially since he’s only taking 4.6 3s per game in the playoffs.

Knicks vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Another play from today’s Peter’s Points, I’m going to back the Knicks, despite the fact that home teams usually bounce back after losing Game 1 of a series:

I took the Knicks to win this series, and Game 1 was about as good of a confirmation as any that they can hang with anyone in the league.

Not only did the Knicks win on the road and erase a double-digit deficit, but they ended up winning the game by 10 points. Brunson is the best closer in the NBA right now, and it seems like the Knicks have a chance to win as long as they’re within a couple possessions in the final minutes.

Let’s just look at this New York playoff run for a second. The Knicks rank:

No. 1 in offensive rating
No. 1 in defensive rating
No. 1 in net rating
No. 1 in effective field goal percentage
No. 1 in assist/turnover ratio

They’ve won 12 games in a row and have two losses that were over 40 days ago, both by one point. No matter how you feel about the “path” that New York took to get to this spot, it has blown out everyone in the East and just went toe-to-toe with the Spurs on the road and won.

While Wembanyama should have a better shooting performance in Game 2, the Knicks didn’t exactly light things up on the offensive end. But, their ability to space the floor and draw Wembanyama out of the paint in key moments was a difference maker in Game 1.

I know that home teams usually rebound in a big way after losing Game 1 – we’ve seen it all postseason – but this Knicks team doesn’t die. I think it’s a gift to get 5.5 points in a Finals game when New York may be the better team.

Pick: Knicks +5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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