Latest Bears vs. Packers Odds Movement Suggests Caleb Williams Has Chance to Return in NFL Week 5

Chicago Bears star quarterback Caleb Williams missed his second game in a row on Sunday due to a hamstring injury, but he's nearing a return to the lineup based on the initial timeline given for his Grade 2 hamstring strain.

Williams was expected to miss three to four weeks, which gives him an outside chance of playing in Week 5 against the Green Bay Packers in a key NFC North divisional clash.

The Bears started Case Keenum in Week 3 (a win over Philadelphia) and Tyson Bagent in Week 4 (a win over the New York Jets), showing that they have two capable backups behind the former No. 1 overall pick.

While the team hasn't shared a new update on Williams' timeline to return, there has been some notable odds movement for the Bears' matchup with Green Bay.

Chicago is a road favorite against the Packers, and the line has already jumped from Bears -1.5 to Bears -2.5 since Sunday night. DraftKings Sportsbook has Chicago set as a -148 favorite to win this game and improve to 4-1 this season.

Could that be a sign that Williams is going to return in Week 5?

It's certainly possible, especially since it's been a long time sinc ethe Bears were favored on the road against the Pack.

The Bears enter next week's game against the Green Bay Packers as 2.5 point road favorites.

According to @Stathead, this is the first time the Bears are road favorites in Green Bay since Week 1 of the 2006 season and the third time in the last 30 years.
— Brendan Sugrue (@BrendanSugrue) October 5, 2026

Oddsmakers have been bracing for the possibility that Williams could miss as much as four weeks, but Chicago's backup quarterback situation has it in a good spot to stay in the mix to win the NFC North.

"Their next three games are Jets, Packers, and Falcons," Ty Gour, Sports Trader at Fanatics Sportsbook, told Sports Illustrated last week. "So that really helps the rating, too. Even if Caleb misses the max timeline of those four weeks, there's some very winnable games there. You could easily make the case they go 3-0 during that stretch despite not having Caleb and are in the driver's seat for the NFC North the rest of the way."

So far this season, Williams had thrown for 407 yards, two scores and one pick while also adding a pair of touchdowns on the ground for Chicago. He led the team to a 59-point showing in a win over Carolina in Week 1.

Bagent would likely get the start in Week 5 if Williams is unable to go. He completed 25 of his 34 passes for 268 yards, no scores and a pick in Week 4 against the Jets. The Bears backup also carried the ball four times for one yard.

Chicago's offense remains in the top 10 in the NFL in EPA/Play, so it may be able to get away with sitting Williams for another game in Week 5.

The star quarterback's status in practice early in the week should give more clarity towards his chances of playing on Sunday, but the recent line movement is notable since the Bears are rarely favored in Green Bay.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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