Liberty vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, July 30

A rematch of the 2026 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup title game is set for Thursday night, as A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces host the New York Liberty and Breanna Stewart.

Both Stewart and Wilson are in the top five in the league in the WNBA MVP odds, but Wilson is the heavy favorite with the Aces sporting one of the best records in the league.

The Liberty are on a mini win streak heading into Thursday’s game, and they’ve already taken down the Aces twice this season. Unfortunately, New York has struggled on the road, going 3-11 against the spread in 2026. On top of that, it is two games under .500 in 16 games against the Western Conference.

Las Vegas began the second half of the 2026 season with a double-digit win over Portland, and it’s looking to build on a solid record at home (8-5). Oddsmakers have set the Aces as two-possession favorites in the third meeting between these teams this season.

Here’s a look at the odds, a prop bet to consider and my prediction as these two title contenders square off.

Liberty vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Liberty +4.5 (-115)
Aces -4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Liberty: +151
Aces: -184

Total

181.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Aces How to Watch

Date: Thursday, July 30
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Liberty record: 16-12
Aces record: 19-8

Liberty vs. Aces Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally -- out
Leonie Fiebich -- out
Marine Johannes -- questionable

Aces Injury Report

NaLyssa Smith -- questionable
Kierstan Bell -- doubtful
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus -- out

Liberty vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Breanna Stewart 2+ 3-Pointers Made (+169)

Breana Stewart is shooting under 28 percent from 3-point range this season, but she’s gotten hot as of late, hitting two or more 3-pointers in four straight games and six of her last eight.

So, why not take a shot on her at plus money against the Aces?

Stewie was 2-for-3 from beyond the arc in her lone regular season matchup with Las Vegas, and she’s taken at least four shots from 3 in each of her last four games.

Las Vegas has struggled to defend the 3 in 2026, ranking 10th in the league in opponent 3-point percentage and 11th in opponent 3s made per game. This is a solid matchup for Stewie as she looks to stay hot from deep.

Liberty vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Aces are a great bet to win this matchup:

The Aces are 0-2 against New York this season (one of those losses was in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup title game), but I’m buying them at home on Thursday night.

New York won, but failed to cover the spread, on Tuesday night against the short-handed Los Angeles Sparks, and the Liberty are a league-worst 3-11 against the spread on the road in 2026.

I’m going to forget the points and simply take the Aces to win, as they’ve been the better team statistically in 2026.

Las Vegas ranks seventh in offensive rating, sixth in defensive rating and fourth in net rating while the Liberty are fifth, eighth and seventh in those respective categories. Plus, New York has been banged up all season long with both Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally missing significant time.

The Aces improved to 8-5 at home with a win over Portland on Tuesday, and it’s worth noting that the Liberty are two games under .500 against the Western Conference in 2026.

I think Las Vegas finally gets a win in what has become one of the best rivalries in the W.

Pick: Aces Moneyline (-180 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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