Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Playoffs Game 1

A rematch of the 2024 WNBA Finals is set for the first round of the playoffs in 2026, as the No. 1-seeded Minnesota Lynx take on the No. 8-seeded New York Liberty.

Minnesota has held the top spot in the WNBA for almost the entire season, and the return of All-WNBA forward Napheesa Collier pushed the Lynx to clear favorites in the odds to win the WNBA Finals in 2026. Still, this is a tough matchup in the first round against a Liberty team with a championship pedigree and three All-Stars in Sabrina Ionescu, Breana Stewart and Jonquel Jones.

New York won two of the three regular-season meetings between these teams, but both squads backed into the playoffs, struggling since the 2026 FIBA World Cup break. The Liberty fell from the No. 6 spot to the No. 8 spot with two straight losses to Atlanta this past week.

Despite that, oddsmakers only have the Lynx set as 6.5-point favorites in Game 1. Minnesota is expected to have rookie sensation Olivia Miles in action on Sunday afternoon even though she missed the final two games of the regular season with a calf issue.

That’s a major boost for the Lynx, who were solid at home in the regular season, winning 15 of their 22 games.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Game 1 of this first-round series on Sept. 27.

Liberty vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Liberty +6.5 (-110)
Lynx -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Liberty: +220
Lynx: -270

Total

173.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Lynx How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 2:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Series: Tied 0-0

Liberty vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

Jonquel Jones -- questionable

Lynx Injury Report

Anastasiia Olairi Kosu -- out

Liberty vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Breanna Stewart 9+ Rebounds (-162)

Breanna Stewart is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game in the 2026 season, and she grabbed 10 boards in her last matchup against the Lynx.

Minnesota is sixth in the WNBA in both rebound percentage and opponent rebounds per game, so this isn’t a bad matchup for Stewie on the glass.

I expect the former league MVP to play a ton of minutes in this game as New York attempts to steal Game 1, and she pulled down nine or more rebounds in three of her four last four games.

Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

These teams have cleared 173.5 points in all three of their meetings in the 2026 season, and I think this total is a little low with Miles expected to play in Game 1.

There’s one trend I can’t look past when it comes to this matchup, especially since both of these teams have a lot of playoff experience and shouldn’t be too tense in Game 1.

The OVER hit in 15 of the Liberty’s 21 games (71.4 percent) which was the second-highest mark in the WNBA. The OVER was also 14-8 in the Lynx’s home games in the 2026 campaign.

Both of these teams have top-six offensive ratings this season and New York finished the regular season just seventh in defensive rating. I wouldn’t be shocked if at least one team reaches the 90-point threshold in Game 1.

Pick: OVER 173.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google