Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Friday, Sept. 18

A potential first-round playoff matchup is set for Friday night in the WNBA, as Olivia Miles and the Minnesota Lynx host the New York Liberty and Breanna Stewart.

The Liberty came out of the break in a three-way tie with the Washington Mystics and Dallas Wings in the standings ahead of Thursday’s action, but they have a tough close to the regular season with games against Minnesota, Toronto and Atlanta (twice). So, there’s a chance the Liberty fall back to the No. 8 seed if they falter over the next week.

These teams met twice back in July with the home team winning both matchups. The Lynx earned a five-point win at home in their last meeting, and Napheesa Collier and Co. are favored on Friday night.

Minnesota has a chance to lock up the No. 1 seed in the league with a win in this matchup, as it holds the tiebreaker over the Golden State Valkyries, who are two games back with four games to play. A Golden State loss on Friday and a Lynx win would secure the No. 1 seed for Cheryl Reeve’s group.

Both of these teams are loaded with star power, but the Lynx have been by far the better squad in 2026, ranking first in the WNBA in net rating, second in offensive rating and second in defensive rating.

Can they handle business at home on Friday?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for the final regular-season meeting between these playoff teams.

Liberty vs. Lynx Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Liberty +7.5 (-118)
Lynx -7.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Liberty: +215
Lynx: -265

Total

176.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Lynx How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 18
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): ION
Liberty record: 24-16
Lynx record: 31-9

Liberty vs. Lynx Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally -- out

Lynx Injury Report

Anastasiia Olairi Kosu -- out

Liberty vs. Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Sabrina Ionescu UNDER 15.5 Points (-122)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Ionescu is a fade candidate against the No. 2 defense in the league:

Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu has dealt with injuries in the 2026 season, and she has not shot the ball well, especially right before the FIBA World Cup break.

Ionescu is averaging 15.1 points per game overall, shooting just 40.1 percent from the field and 29.5 percent from 3. She’s shooting almost five percent worse from downtown than her career average, and the four-time All-Star was in a massive slump in the final seven games she played in August.

Over that stretch, Ionescu averaged 11.9 points per game while shooting 33.0 percent from the field and 14.9 percent from 3. She only had three games with over 15 points during that stretch.

Now, Ionescu did have two strong games (17 and 25 points) against Minnesota back in July, but she shot a combined 14-for-32 in those games. So, the volume may be the only thing that gets the Liberty guard over this number on Friday night.

Against the No. 2 defense in the league, I’m willing to take the UNDER for Ionescu in this matchup.

Liberty vs. Lynx Prediction and Pick

Minnesota is the better of these two teams this season, but one could argue that the Liberty have more to play for over the final week of the campaign.

New York is battling to avoid Minnesota in the first round of the playoffs while the Lynx need to go just 2-2 to clinch the No. 1 seed in the league.

These teams played a close matchup the last time they met, and the Liberty entered the FIBA World Cup break on a bit of a hot streak, winning seven of their last 10 games.

While I lean with the Lynx to win this game, I think this spread has moved a bit too far with Minnesota set as a three-possession favorite. The Liberty have a talented roster with Ionescu, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, and the Lynx have really fallen off when it comes to covering the number after a torrid start in 2026.

The Lynx are just 8-10 against the spread as home favorites, and I think the Liberty can at least hang around after losing by just five on the road the last time these teams met.

Pick: Liberty +7.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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