Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Friday, July 3

Fresh off of a WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game win, the New York Liberty and Sabrina Ionescu face the No. 1 seed in the WNBA – the Minnesota Lynx – on Friday night.

Both of these teams have title aspirations this season, and Minnesota’s chances are improving with the news that Napheesa Collier (ankle) has officially returned to practice. The All-WNBA forward has been ruled out for this game, but she appears to be nearing a return in the coming weeks.

That’s a great sign for the Lynx, who are set as small favorites on the road in this contest. Minnesota is 15-4 so far in the 2026 campaign, riding an impressive rookie season from No. 2 overall pick Olivia Miles.

I’m targeting Miles in the prop market in this game, though she has a tough matchup against the Liberty.

New York is 12-8 in regular-season action, but the return of Ionescu has put the Liberty in a much better spot on offense. They also are hoping to get Satou Sabally (concussion protocol) back in the lineup soon. She’s listed as out on Friday night.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Friday’s clash between two WNBA Finals contenders.

Lynx vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Lynx -1.5 (-112)
Liberty +1.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Lynx: -130
Liberty: +110

Total

173.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Lynx vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Friday, July 3
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): ION
Lynx record: 15-4
Liberty record: 12-8

Lynx vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

Napheesa Collier -- out
Dorka Juhasz -- questionable
Emma Cechova -- out

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally -- out

Lynx vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

Olivia Miles UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-189)

Olivia Miles has put together an extremely impressive rookie season, but she has not shot the ball well from 3-point range. Miles is averaging 1.1 made 3s on 3.4 attempts per game, but both of those numbers are buoyed by the fact that she was 8-for-11 from 3 in a win over Golden State earlier this season.

Outside of that game, Miles has made two or more shots from deep just three times in her other 18 games. She's shooting 32.8 percent from beyond the arc, but that number drops a ton if you remove the Golden State game.

So, I’m not buying the former TCU star in this matchup against a Liberty team that is fourth in the league in opponent 3-point percentage. Miles will still get her points, but she doesn’t take enough shots from 3 to trust her in this market.

Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

In today’s edition of Peter’s Points – my daily WNBA Best Bets column – I shared why I think the UNDER is the play with two Finals contenders facing off:

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league, as well as the No. 3 (Minnesota) and No. 6 (New York) offenses.

However, the Lynx are No. 1 in the W in defensive rating and No. 2 in opponent points per game while the Liberty are No. 4 in defensive rating and No. 3 in opponent points per game.

The Lynx have hit the UNDER in 10 of their 19 games this season, which is shockingly the best UNDER mark in the W. Over their last four games, they have gone UNDER 173.5 combined points in all of them.

Even though there is a ton of offensive talent on both sides in this one, the Liberty don’t really profile as a high-scoring squad in 2026. They are 10th in pace, eighth in points per game and have really hung their hat on the defensive end with Satou Sabally and Sabrina Ionescu missing time.

I am expecting a hard-fought, defensive game on Friday night.

Pick: UNDER 173.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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