Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

If there were any questions about the Minnesota Lynx contending for a title in the 2026 WNBA season, they’ve been answered through the first eight games of the season.

Even with MVP candidate Napheesa Collier (ankle) out of the lineup, Minnesota is off to a 6-2 start and has the best net rating in the WNBA heading into Monday’s Commissioner’s Cup opener against the Phoenix Mercury.

The Lynx are favored on the road in this game, as the Mercury have just two wins this season and have dropped five games in a row. After blowing out Las Vegas to open the season, Phoenix has dropped seven of eight games and has the worst against the spread record in the W.

Minnesota won the lone meeting between these teams back on May 12 by four points, and it’s looking to extend a four-game winning streak that has vaulted it into the top spot in the WNBA standings.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop pick and my prediction as these teams look to go 1-0 in Commissioner’s Cup action.

Lynx vs. Mercury Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Lynx -3.5 (-108)
Mercury +3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Lynx: -162
Mercury: +136

Total

166.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Lynx vs. Mercury How to Watch

Date: Monday, June 1
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
How to Watch (TV): Peacock, NBCSN
Lynx record: 6-2
Mercury record: 2-7

Lynx vs. Mercury Injury Reports

Lynx Injury Report

Dorka Juhasz – out
Napheesa Collier – out
Emma Cechova – out

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb – out

Lynx vs. Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bets

Lynx Best WNBA Prop Bet

Courtney Williams OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-120)

Courtney Williams is a dominant mid-range player, but she’s also shot the 3-ball well in the 2026 season. The two-time All-Star is shooting 39.4 percent from 3 in the 2026 campaign, knocking down multiple 3-pointers in four of her eight matchups.

Williams does have a few games where she’s dialed back the volume from 3, taking just one attempt from deep in two of her last three, but she did attempt four 3-pointers in the first meeting with the Mercury in 2026.

Phoenix ranks dead last in the W in opponent 3s made per game and opponent 3-point percentage (38.4%) so far in 2026. So, this is a favorable matchup for Williams, who is averaging a career-high 4.1 3-point attempts per game this season.

Lynx vs. Mercury Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I believe Minnesota is undervalued on the road:

Minnesota has been the best team in the WNBA through the first few weeks, ranking No. 1 in net rating and No. 1 in defensive rating. The offense (eighth in the W) hasn’t been as effective as it would be if Napheesa Collier (out, ankle) was playing, but it’s been good enough for the Lynx to start 6-2 and cover the spread in seven of their eight games.

I’m going to forget the points in this matchup and simply take the Lynx to win outright on the road. Minnesota is 4-0 away from Target Center this season, and it already has an 88-84 road win over the Mercury.

Phoenix started the season with a bang, blowing out the defending champion Las Vegas Aces, but it has since lost seven of eight games and is currently on a five-game skid. The Mercury don’t have a terrible net rating (minus-1.2), but they have the worst 3-point defense in the WNBA and are 10th in points per game on offense.

The loss of Satou Sabally has hurt the Mercury early in the season, and I expect them to struggle against the WNBA’s best defense. Plus, Phoenix has been the worst team to bet on to cover (3-6 against the spread) through nine games.

I’ll bet on the Lynx staying hot in this Commissioner’s Cup opener.

Pick: Lynx Moneyline (-162 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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