Mac's Sunday Slate: 5 Best NFL Bets for NFL Week 6

Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and we have plenty of games to watch and bet on, so find a spot on the couch, put on a cup of coffee, and lock in your bets.

I have spent the week breaking down my favorite plays in the Week 6 editions of the Road to 272 Bets and the Player Prop Countdown, but the odds have moved between then and now. In this article, I'm going to give you three plays that I believe still have value as of Sunday morning. Let's dive into them.

5 Best NFL Bets Today

Derrick Henry OVER 89.5 Rush Yards (-113) via FanDuel
Caleb Williams OVER 225.5 Pass Yards (-113) via FanDuel
Titans +265 vs. Colts via FanDuel
Jets +7.5 (-112) vs. Patriots via DraftKings
Cowboys vs. Packers OVER 53.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Best Bet No. 1: Derrick Henry OVER 89.5 Rush Yards (-113)

The weakest part of the Cleveland Browns is their run defense, ranking 29th in opponent rush EPA and 28th in opponent rush success rate. That, along with the fact that Lamar Jackson is nursing an injury, means it would be smart for the Ravens to lean on Derrick Henry. There's a chance he has his biggest performance of the season this Sunday.

Best Bet No. 2: Caleb Williams OVER 225.5 Pass Yards (-113)

Caleb Williams returns to action this Sunday, and he is set to face a Falcons' secondary that has been dealing with significant injuries. Their top cornerback, A.J. Terrell, is on IR, and now C.J. Henderson is questionable ahead of this game. The Falcons' run defense continues to be elite, but their secondary is going to be gettable for the next few weeks.

Best Bet No. 3: Titans +265 vs. Colts

In this week's edition of the SI team's favorite upset picks, I made the case for taking the Titans to take down the Colts:

It's time for the Titans to get their first win of the season.

You might be surprised to find out how many metrics these two teams rank similarly in, even some that the Titans outrank the Colts in, like net yards per play, which has the Titans at -0.7 and the Colts second-last in the NFL at -1.6.

Another interesting metric for this game is that the Titans have the second-highest run frequency in neutral game states, meaning that on early downs in the middle of the game, when they still have a more than 20% win probability, Tennessee loves to run the football. That could be an area they exploit in this game, as the Colts rank dead last in the NFL in opponent rush EPA and 30th in opponent run success rate.

Meanwhile, the Titans rank 16th and 11th in those two run defense categories, which will go a long way in slowing down Jonathan Taylor, who is the key to beating this Colts team.

I'll take Tennessee as my upset pick of the week.

Best Bet No. 4: Jets +7.5 (-112) vs. Patriots

The Jets may not be as bad as I thought they'd be this season. They aren't good, but they're ranked around the middle of the pack in the NFL across many metrics, including 20th in EPA per play, 11th in opponent EPA per play, and 14th in net yards per play (+0.2).

Geno Smith has also been interesting this season. He hasn't been throwing the ball all over the field and racking up yards, but he's been accurate, ranking 10th in completion percentage over expected, and he has yet to throw an interception. Efficient play from your quarterback goes a long way in covering spreads as an underdog.

The Patriots are coming off an impressive win against the Raiders last week, but let's not pretend that all of their early-season problems have been solved. I'm not sure I'm ready to back them to cover a 7.5-point spread against a division rival this week.

Best Bet No. 5: Cowboys vs. Packers OVER 53.5 (-105)

My strategy for the Cowboys this season is fairly straightforward. If they're favored, bet against them; if they're getting points, take them, if it's close to a pick'em bet the OVER. Their defense is too bad to lay points on them, but their offense is too good to ever underestimate them. That's why, in this week's coin-flip game against the Packers, I'm going to bet the OVER, especially considering the Packers have a similar issue.

The two defenses in this game rank 24th and 32nd in opponent success rate, with the Cowboys also ranking 32nd in opponent EPA per play.

Let's sit back and root for points on Sunday Night Football.

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