Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Aug. 13

The New York Yankees have taken back-to-back games from the Seattle Mariners, rallying from a 4-1 deficit on Wednesday night to set up a potential sweep on Thursday afternoon.

New York has taken a four-game lead over the Boston Red Sox for the top wild card spot in the American League, and it continues to look like one of the top teams in all of baseball even with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton sidelined.

A big reason why is New York’s pitching staff, which has the best team EARA (3.30) in all of baseball. One of the stars of that staff is lefty Max Fried (2.88 ERA) who will take on Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert (3.42 ERA) in this series finale.

The Mariners have dropped six games in a row and are now four games out of the final wild card spot in the AL heading into this matchup. After making the ALCS in 2025, Seattle is staring down a lost season in 2026 if it’s not able to turn things around soon.

Oddsmakers have given the Yankees the edge in this matinee matchup, so let’s check out the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction as New York aims to win a third straight.

Mariners vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mariners +1.5 (-180)
Yankees -1.5 (+148)

Moneyline

Mariners: +126
Yankees: -135

Total

7.5 (Over -114/Under -105)

Mariners vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Seattle: Logan Gilbert (8-7, 3.42 ERA)
New York: Max Fried (4-3, 2.88 ERA)

Mariners vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Aug. 13
Time: 1:35 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, YES Network, Mariners.TV
Mariners record: 56-65
Yankees record: 68-52

Mariners vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+383)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props column – Daily Dinger – why Garcia is a great bet to leave the yard in this matchup:

New York Yankees first baseman Luis Garcia Jr. has been one of the best hitters in MLB against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .294 batting average, .913 OPS and 21 of his 24 home runs.

Garcia was acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, and he was the National League leader in slugging percentage when that deal was made. The veteran has two home runs over the last two weeks (10 games), and he may be worth a look at Yankee Stadium with the short porch in this series finale with the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners have right-hander Logan Gilbert on the mound, and Garcia has fared pretty well against him in limited at-bats, going 2-for-5. Gilbert has allowed 19 home runs in 23 appearances this season, and he’s allowed four long balls in two starts so far this month.

That’s a positive sign for Garcia, who had a two-hit game earlier in this series. The Yankees’ offense has struggled over the last month, but I don’t mind this price for the left-handed slugger since he’s been so great against righties in 2026.

Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

A lot has been made of the Yankees’ offensive struggles as of late (and rightfully so), but the Mariners haven’t been that much better.

New York is 25th in OPS over the last 30 days (Seattle is 24th) and it’s 28th in runs scored (Seattle is 29th). The main difference? The Yankees’ offense hasn’t been this bad all season long.

The Mariners rank 30th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and 16th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) for the entire 2026 season, and their recent losing streak is yet another sign that this isn’t a playoff team.

Fried (2.88 ERA) has been lights out for New York this season, ranking in the 98th percentile in expected ERA and the 94th percentile in expected batting average against. He has an edge over Gilbert, who sits in the 63rd percentile in expected ERA.

Even if Gilbert pitches well, New York also has the superior bullpen (No. 2 in bullpen ERA) this season.

Seattle is now 13 games under .500 on the road, and I don’t see it upsetting New York with Fried on the bump this afternoon.

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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