Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Kyle Schwarber, Andy Pages, Yankees Slugger)

Thursday’s Major League Baseball action features a bunch of games with a first pitch before 5 p.m. EST, but that’s not going to stop the SI Betting team from finding a few intriguing home run props.

After hitting picks for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Joc Pederson on Tuesday, I was able to keep them momentum going and cash a +303 prop for Shohei Ohtani in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ matchup with the Kansas City Royals.

Now, with a shortened slate on Thursday, the pressure is on to extend this winning streak to three days in a row.

I’m eyeing sluggers for both the New York Yankees and Dodgers, as both teams look to continue their quest for a top spot in the playoff standings.

Betting on home run props isn’t easy, but finding favorable pitching matchups is one way to lower the variance when it comes to this market. Here’s a look at all three players that I’m targeting on Thursday, Aug. 13.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Aug. 13

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Luis Garcia Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+383)

New York Yankees first baseman Luis Garcia Jr. has been one of the best hitters in MLB against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .294 batting average, .913 OPS and 21 of his 24 home runs.

Garcia was acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, and he was the National League leader in slugging percentage when that deal was made. The veteran has two home runs over the last two weeks (10 games), and he may be worth a look at Yankee Stadium with the short porch in this series finale with the Seattle Mariners.

The Mariners have right-hander Logan Gilbert on the mound, and Garcia has fared pretty well against him in limited at-bats, going 2-for-5. Gilbert has allowed 19 home runs in 23 appearances this season, and he’s allowed four long balls in two starts so far this month.

That’s a positive sign for Garcia, who had a two-hit game earlier in this series. The Yankees’ offense has struggled over the last month, but I don’t mind this price for the left-handed slugger since he’s been so great against righties in 2026.

Andy Pages to Hit a Home Run (+364)

Dodgers outfielder Andy Pages has an interesting matchup on Thursday night, as he’ll take on the Milwaukee Brewers and lefty Shane Drohan.

Pages is 1-for-3 with a home run against Drohan in his career, but the Brewers southpaw has done a solid job limiting the long ball this season, giving up just nine in 23 appearances. Drohan began the season working out of the bullpen, but he’s started since June 1, recording a 4.39 ERA in 12 appearances.

Even though Drohan has limited the long ball in 2026, I think this is a solid matchup for Pages, who is hitting .318 with a .923 OPS over the last week. The Dodgers outfielder has been great against left-handed pitching in 2026, hitting .279 with six home runs and an .873 OPS.

At nearly 4/1 odds, Pages should be able to make some noise in a major matchup in the National League with both of these teams vying for the No. 1 seed.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+239)

Philadelphia Phillies star Kyle Schwarber has 35 home runs in the 2026 season, and I think he’s in a great spot to add to that total on Thursday night.

Schwarber will take on the Minnesota Twins and right-hander Taj Bradley, who has given up 17 home runs in 23 appearances this season. Bradley has only faced Schwarber once, but the Phillies star took him deep in that matchup.

This season, Schwarber is hitting .248, but he’s been on fire over the last week (seven games), homering twice while posting a .360 batting average. Against right-handed pitching, Schwarber has homered 23 times in the 2026 season.

The +239 price isn’t the best you’ll find for a home run prop on Thursday, but whenever Schwarber is swinging a hot bat, he’s a threat to leave the yard. I love him against a Twins team that ranks in the bottom five in bullpen ERA this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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