Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, Aug. 12

It’s now or never for the Seattle Mariners, who are in serious danger of missing the playoffs in the 2026 season.

Seattle dropped a fifth game in a row on Tuesday night, losing to the New York Yankees, and it’s now eight games under .500 and four games out of the final wild card spot in the American League.

New York has the No. 1 wild card spot in the AL and the second-best record, sitting behind only the Tampa Bay Rays. However, if the Yankees can’t overtake the Rays, they’ll be destined for a wild card matchup for the second year in a row.

Oddsmakers have set the Yankees as favorites in this matchup with Will Warren (4.18 ERA) getting the start against Seattle’s Bryce Miller (3.08 ERA). Miller has pitched pretty well in 2026, but the Mariners have dropped his last five starts.

Can they turn things around on Wednesday night?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this AL battle.

Mariners vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mariners +1.5 (-193)
Yankees -1.5 (+158)

Moneyline

Mariners: +116
Yankees: -124

Total

8.5 (Over -120/Under -101)

Mariners vs. Yankees Probable Pitchers

Seattle: Bryce Miller (4-6, 3.08 ERA)
New York: Will Warren (8-6, 4.18 ERA)

Mariners vs. Yankees How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Aug. 12
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Yankee Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Mariners record: 56-64
Yankees record: 67-52

Mariners vs. Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

Mariners Best MLB Prop Bet

Bryce Miller UNDER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-132)

This season, Miller ranks in the 97th percentile in walk percentage, allowing just 15 free passes in 79.0 innings of work. He’s given up one or fewer walks in 10 of his 14 outings, and I think he has a favorable matchup against this struggling New York offense.

The Yankees are fourth in the league in walk rate this season, but they have seen that number dip significantly over the last month. New York is just 20th in walks drawn over that stretch, as Cody Bellinger, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have all been out of the lineup.

Miller did allow two free passes in his last start, but he has generated a ton of swings out of the zone, ranking in the 94th percentile in chase rate. I think he’s worth a look in this matchup with New York falling to the bottom 10 in the league in several offensive categories over the last 30 days.

Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Earlier on Wednesday, SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan shared his pick for this game in his column where he bets $100 every day for the entire year:

The Mariners have the advantage in this game when it comes to starting pitchers. Bryce Miller (3.08 ERA) will get the start for Seattle and Will Warren (4.18 ERA) will get the start for New York. Additionally, the Yankees offense continues to be one of the worst in baseball, ranking 29th in wRC+ over the past 30 days. That's enough for me to take a chance on the Mariners as underdogs in this spot.

I don’t mind betting on the Mariners to win this game, especially since Warren ranks in the 31st percentile in expected ERA this season while Miller sits in the 94th percentile.

However, I also think the UNDER is a solid bet in this matchup. These teams are both in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored over the last 30 days, and they combined for just five runs on Tuesday night.

MacMillan also mentioned that New York is second-to-last in wRC+ over the last 30 days.

I think taking Seattle at plus money, paired with an UNDER bet is a great way to go 2-for-2 on Wednesday night.

Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+116 at DraftKings), UNDER 8.5 (-101 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google