Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 24

Back-to-back losses to the Miami Marlins have pushed the Chicago Cubs back to the No. 2 wild card spot in the National League, and NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong and Co. will look to avoid a sweep on Thursday afternoon.

The Cubs are favored at home with lefty Matthew Boyd (4.06 ERA) on the mound on Thursday against Miami’s Tyler Phillips (3.45 ERA).

Chicago has not clinched a playoff spot just yet, and the Arizona Diamondbacks (three games back of both Chicago and Philly) are lurking in the NL wild card race.

Miami has been eliminated from postseason contention, but it could finish over .500 this season if it wins four straight games to close the regular season. The Marlins have used Phillips as both a reliever and a starter this season, and he’s pitched no more than 5.1 innings in a start since July 1.

So, we could see a lot of the Marlins bullpen (4.09 ERA) on Thursday.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series finale on Sept. 24.

Marlins vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Marlins +1.5 (-133)
Cubs -1.5 (+110)

Moneyline

Marlins: +170
Cubs: -208

Total

7 (Over -107/Under -112)

Marlins vs. Cubs Probable Pitchers

Miami: Tyler Phillips (5-6, 3.45 ERA)
Chicago: Matthew Boyd (9-5, 4.06 ERA)

Marlins vs. Cubs How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept. 24
Time: 2:20 p.m. EST
Venue: Wrigley Field
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, Marquee Sports Network, Marlins.TV
Marlins record: 78-80
Cubs record: 87-71

Marlins vs. Cubs Best MLB Prop bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

Matthew Boyd OVER 0.5 Walks Allowed (-252)

I wasn't able to find a prop at DraftKings for Boyd to allow two or more walks, but I think he’s a no-brainer bet to allow at least one on Thursday. The Cubs lefty ranks in the 65th percentile in walk percentage this season, but he’s allowed two or more free passes in seven of his last eight starts.

On top of that, Boyd is facing a Miami offense that is 13th in MLB in walk rate in 2026.

I simply think this line is off heading into Thursday’s series finale.

Marlins vs. Cubs Prediction and Pick

Miami hasn’t done a great job of covering the run line on the road this season (25-24 as road underdogs), but I’m going to take a shot on the Fish in this matchup.

Chicago is just 22-42 on the run line when favored at home, and Boyd (4.06 ERA) hasn't been all that sharp in 2026, ranking in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA and the 13th percentile in expected batting average against.

Phillips (25th percentile in expected ERA) hasn’t been that much better, but the Cubbies are struggling as of late, going just 5-5 in their last 10 games.

This -208 moneyline price is pretty high with Boyd on the mound, especially since the Cubs have dropped six of his last seven starts.

The Cubs’ offense has been one of the best in baseball all season (No. 1 in OPS and Weighted Runs Created Plus), but this team routinely has failed to cover at home. With the Cubbies already dropping two games in this series, I’ll take the one-run cushion with the Marlins on Thursday.

Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-133 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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