Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon Quarterfinals

No. 12-ranked Marta Kostyuk and No. 13-ranked Jasmine Paolini have both put together strong showings at Wimbledon in 2026, and now they’ll meet in the quarterfinals on Wednesday for their first-ever head-to-head match in a Grand Slam.

Kostyuk and Paolini have faced each other three times in their respective careers, with the Italian winning two of those matchups. However, Wednesday’s quarterfinal will be the first time they’ve faced off since 2023.

Paolini was the runner-up at Wimbledon in 2024, but this is her first quarterfinal appearance at a Grand Slam since then. Kostyuk is coming off a semifinal appearance at the French Open earlier this year, and she’s dropped just two sets through four matches in this tournament.

In Round 4, Paolini held off Alexandra Eala (who upset reigning Wimbledon champion Iga Swiatek) in three sets. She’s set as a +215 underdog to win on Wednesday with Kostyuk currently on her best run at Wimbledon of her career.

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s tournament results and my prediction for this match.

Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Marta Kostyuk: -272
Jasmine Paolini: +215

Total

21.5 (Over -120/Under -120)

Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, July 8
Time: 8:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited

Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini History and Wimbledon Performance

Marta Kostyuk

Kostyuk hadn’t made it out of the third round at Wimbledon prior to this year’s tournament, and she’s building on a strong showing at the French Open where she made the semifinals.

In three meetings with Paolini, Kostyuk is just 1-2 with her lone win coming in 2022 at the Cincinnati Open. It’s hard to put much stock into their head-to-head meetings, especially since we haven’t seen Paolini this far in a Grand Slam since 2024.

Kostyuk beat Ashlyn Krueger 6-4, 6-4 in Round 4 to advance and has won eight of her 10 sets so far in this tournament.

Jasmine Paolini

The 2024 runner-up in the French Open and at Wimbledon, Paolini is looking to return to the biggest stage and reach a Grand Slam final in 2026.

The Italian needed three sets to get past Eala in Round 4, but she needed just 15 games to win in Round 3 and has two wins in straight sets in this tournament.

So far this year, Paolini has struggled a bit in Grand Slams, losing in the third round at the Australian Open and the second round at the French Open before making this impressive run at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

Marta Kostyuk vs. Jasmine Paolini Prediction and Pick

It’s completely understandable that Kostyuk is favored in this match after reaching the semifinals of the French Open, and many of her stats are better than Paolini’s in 2026.

Kostyuk is winning 74.4 percent of her service games this year, which is almost 10 percent better than Paolini. On top of that, the 24-year-old is winning almost 12 percent more of her return games than the Italian.

So, Kostyuk being a -272 favorite is pretty understandable since she’s avoided trouble for most of this tournament.

Still, I think there’s value in betting on Paolini to win one set in this match.

Both of these players have two matches that have gone the distance in this tournament, and Paolini has a lot of prior success at Wimbledon. After knocking off Eala in Round 4, I think Paolini may be able to steal a set and at least make Kostyuk sweat this match.

There’s no value in betting on Kostyuk to win as nearly a 3/1 favorite, but this line for Paolini would cover a lot of outcomes, including a Kostyuk 2-1 win and any form of a Paolini win.

Pick: Jasmine Paolini +1.5 Sets (-135 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google