Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi Prediction, Odds for French Open Quarterfinals

Matteo Berrettini is back in the quarterfinals of the French Open for the first time since 2021, and the 30-year-old will take on another Italian – Matteo Arnaldi – on Wednesday afternoon.

Berrettini last made the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam at the 2022 U.S. Open, as hand and ankle injuries have really derailed his career. However, the 30-year-old could not have picked a better time to find his old form, as Jannik Sinne, Novak Djokovic and other top players have already been eliminated from this year’s action at Roland Garros.

So, Berrettini, who is favored on Wednesday, has a real chance to reach a Grand Slam final for the first time since Wimbledon in 2021.

Arnaldi doesn’t have as extensive of a history as Berrettini, but the 24-year-old has performed well at Roland Garros in his career, making the fourth round in 2024. Arnaldi knocked off No. 19 Frances Tiafoe in five sets in the fourth round to reach the first Grand Slam quarterfinal of his career.

Can he pull off another upset on Wednesday?

Let’s take a look at the odds, the path for each player to reach the quarterfinals and my prediction for this match.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Matteo Berrettini: -185
Matteo Arnaldi: +150

Total

37.5 (Over -120/Under -120)

Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, June 3
Time: 2:15 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): truTV/TNT/HBO Max

Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi History and French Open Performance

Matteo Berrettini

Berrettini’s injuries have cost him appearances at Roland Garros for the last several years, so there isn’t much recent history to look at for the 30-year-old. Still, he’s made several quarterfinal runs at Grand Slams in the past, and he’s playing at a high level right now, knocking off Juan Manuel Cerundolo in straight sets in Round 4.

The Italian has also beaten Márton Fucsovics, Arthur Rinderknech and Francisco Comesana on his way to the quarterfinals with two of his victories coming in straight sets.

The quarterfinal will be the first time Berrettini has faced Arnaldi in his career.

Matteo Arnaldi

Arnaldi has two second-round exits and one fourth-round exit at Roland Garros in his career, but he has knocked off No. 29 Tallon Griekspoor and Tiafoe (No. 19) already in this tournament.

The 24-year-old doesn’t have a ton of Grand Slam experience, and he has needed at least four sets to win every match in this tournament. Arnaldi entered this tournament with a record of 27-24 on clay in his career, including a 2-3 mark in 2026.

Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi Prediction and Pick

Could this be a spot where experience wins out?

Arnaldi showed some serious fight in a long match with Tiafoe in the fourth round, but it’s possible there’s some fatigue for the 24-year-old after going the distance in back-to-back matches.

Berrettini has been able to make much quicker work in his French Open quest, and one has to wonder if he’d be an even bigger favorite had he not dealt with so many injuries over the last few years. Berrettini has a lot of proven success at Grand Slams, and he’s been a dominant player on clay, going 71-31 in his career.

Even though Arnaldi has knocked off a few top players in this tournament, I think he’ll run into trouble with Berrettini, who made quick work of the underdog Cerundolo in the fourth round.

Pick: Matteo Berrettini Moneyline (-185 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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