Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Oct. 26

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Miami Heat have yet to win a game in the 2026-27 season, but they find themselves as major favorites on Monday night against the Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas is coming off a blowout loss at home against the San Antonio Spurs – a matchup in which it didn’t have former No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg.

The star forward suffered a shoulder injury on Friday night in a win over the Indiana Pacers, and he’s officially questionable for this game, an upgrade from his status on Saturday. So, the Mavs may have some value as 8.5-point underdogs on the road.

Miami has dropped games against Minnesota, Detroit and Charlotte to open the season, ranking dead last in the NBA in net rating. There is a lack of offensive creation around Antetokounmpo on this team, and the Heat are 27th in the league in offensive rating and 26th in points per game.

Can they finally get back on track against a Dallas squad that remains without several rotation players?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this interconference battle on Oct. 26.

Mavericks vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mavs +8.5 (-118)
Heat -8.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Mavs: +250
Heat: -310

Total

239.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mavericks vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Monday, Oct. 26
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Mavs record: 1-2
Heat record: 0-3

Mavericks vs. Heat Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Cooper Flagg – questionable
Naji Marshall – out
Caleb Martin – doubtful
Dereck Lively II – out
Tarik Biberovic – out
Santi Aldama – out

Heat Injury Report

Pelle Larsson – available

Mavericks vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Davion Mitchell OVER 10.5 Points (-121)

Miami doesn’t have a ton of help at the point guard position, and former lottery pick Davion Mitchell is off to a great start in the 2026-27 season, so he should remain in a major role for Erik Spoelstra’s club.

Mitchell is averaging 17.0 points per game while shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 46.7 percent from beyond the arc. He’s picked up at least 11 points in every game, including 40 total points over his last two contests.

The Mavs are just 21st in the league in defensive rating through three games, so this is a pretty favorable matchup for Mitchell as Miami looks to win for the first time this season.

Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking Dallas to cover on the road:

Dallas is off to a 1-2 start this season, losing to Houston and San Antonio, but it blitzed the Indiana Pacers in a road win with Cooper Flagg (shoulder) missing the second half of that game.

After missing Saturday’s loss to the Spurs with the shoulder injury, Flagg is now questionable for Monday night against a winless Miami Heat team. I’m betting on the star forward suiting up in this matchup, which I think will pull this line down before tip off, and I don’t think Miami should be favored by this much after losses to Minnesota, Detroit and Charlotte.

The Heat lack offensive options around Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they’re 27th in offensive rating and 24th in effective field goal percentage through three games. Despite the defensive duo of Giannis and Bam Adebayo, Miami has allowed 115 points or more in each game, ranking 27th in the league in defensive rating as well. The Heat have the worst net rating in the NBA, which has supported my preseason thoughts that they’d struggle to make the playoffs in a loaded Eastern Conference.

While I’m not sold on Dallas as a play-in team in the West, there’s no doubt that the Mavs have a higher ceiling with Flagg in action. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft had 32 points in the season opener and was on his way to a huge game against the Pacers (14 points, five rebounds, six assists, three steals) before suffering the shoulder injury.

Even on the road, I think Dallas keeps this game within three possessions, as the Heat are extremely reliant on Giannis on offense. After all, the Hornets upset this Miami team with two starters – Coby White and Kon Knueppel – out of the lineup over the weekend.

Pick: Mavs +8.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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