Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Mavs-Heat, Wizards-Hornets)

The first week of the 2026-27 NBA season comes to a close with a nine-game lineup on Monday, which also happens to be the Sports Equinox. The NBA, MLB, NFL and NHL are all in action on Monday, making for a fun betting night – especially when it comes to basketball.

Sunday’s slate wasn’t very kind, as the New York Knicks blew a second-half lead to crush our moneyline parlay and foul trouble limited Walker Kessler’s minutes. It was a 1-for-4 night overall, but it’s still very early in the season and there is plenty of time to get hot.

Here’s a look at my favorite thing from Sunday’s NBA action, as well as what to watch for during this monster slate of games on Monday.

Dew’s Review: A bit of a long-winded Dew’s Review today, because there are a few points that I want to hit. First off, prayers up to Jalen Williams after his scary ankle injury on Sunday, just hoping he’ll make a full recovery. Also, I have to throw some flowers towards MVP candidate Luka Doncic after a 52-point showing in the Los Angeles Lakers’ win over Utah. But, the main topic today is the defending champion New York Knicks and their 0-3 start. Should we be concerned? New York is 29th in offensive rating and 28th in effective field goal percentage, struggling to break the 100-point mark in all three games to open the season. I’m not ready to push the panic button for this team, but there are clearly some offensive issues and Mikal Bridges (3.3 points per game) simply hasn’t been good enough for the salary slot the Knicks have him in. New York’s next chance to earn a win is on Tuesday against the undefeated Detroit Pistons. The last champion to start 0-3? The Dallas Mavericks after their title in 2011.

Peter’s Point: There are a ton of great games on Monday, but I’m eyeing the undefeated Minnesota Timberwolves on the second night of a back-to-back against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland has two subpar showings in a loss to Philly and a close win over Brooklyn, while the Wolves are coming off an impressive victory against Toronto on Sunday. Minnesota seems to have found some magic so far with the LaMelo Ball-Anthony Edwards pairing, as the team ranks fifth in offensive rating, first in defensive rating and second in net rating through the first week of games. Can the Wolves keep it rolling on a back-to-back against another playoff contender?

For Monday’s action, I’ve narrowed things down to four bets, including a prop for Nikola Jokic to close out the first week of games in the NBA.

Peter Dewey NBA Betting Record

2026-27 season record: 7-10 (-4.13 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1628-158-27 (+26.04 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Dallas Mavericks +8.5 (-115) vs. Miami Heat
Cameron Boozer OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-126)
Nikola Jokic 12+ Rebounds (-161)
Washington Wizards +2.5 (-118) vs. Charlotte Hornets

Dallas Mavericks +8.5 (-115) vs. Miami Heat

Dallas is off to a 1-2 start this season, losing to Houston and San Antonio, but it blitzed the Indiana Pacers in a road win with Cooper Flagg (shoulder) missing the second half of that game.

After missing Saturday’s loss to the Spurs with the shoulder injury, Flagg is now questionable for Monday night against a winless Miami Heat team. I’m betting on the star forward suiting up in this matchup, which I think will pull this line down before tip off, and I don’t think Miami should be favored by this much after losses to Minnesota, Detroit and Charlotte.

The Heat lack offensive options around Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they’re 27th in offensive rating and 24th in effective field goal percentage through three games. Despite the defensive duo of Giannis and Bam Adebayo, Miami has allowed 115 points or more in each game, ranking 27th in the league in defensive rating as well. The Heat have the worst net rating in the NBA, which has supported my preseason thoughts that they’d struggle to make the playoffs in a loaded Eastern Conference.

While I’m not sold on Dallas as a play-in team in the West, there’s no doubt that the Mavs have a higher ceiling with Flagg in action. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft had 32 points in the season opener and was on his way to a huge game against the Pacers (14 points, five rebounds, six assists, three steals) before suffering the shoulder injury.

Even on the road, I think Dallas keeps this game within three possessions, as the Heat are extremely reliant on Giannis on offense. After all, the Hornets upset this Miami team with two starters – Coby White and Kon Knueppel – out of the lineup over the weekend.

Cameron Boozer OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-126)

Memphis Grizzlies rookie Cameron Boozer hasn’t shot the ball well in the 2026-27 season (14-for-49 from the field), but he’s been elite on the boards.

The No. 3 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, Boozer has 11, 13 and 11 boards in three games, putting together a big second half in the team’s win over Sacramento on Sunday.

Zach Edey didn’t play in that game, but he should return to action on the second night of a back-to-back. Still, Boozer averaged 18.0 rebound chances per game in the two games with Edey in the lineup, so I’m shocked to see this prop under 9.5 on Monday.

Boozer is playing big minutes (over 31 in every game), and he already grabbed 11 rebounds against Utah in the season opener. The Jazz are playing a back-to-back as well on Monday after a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday.

The Jazz remain without starting center Jusuf Nurkic, and they were outrebounded 55-38 by Memphis last week. I’ll continue to bet on Boozer with the market failing to adjust to his strong start on the glass.

Nikola Jokic 12+ Rebounds (-161)

Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had a 35-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in the team’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans over the weekend, and he has a very favorable matchup against the Golden State Warriors on Monday.

Golden State remains without Kristaps Porzingis, and the lack of size in the frontcourt has the Warriors at 19th in the league in rebound percentage and 15th in opponent rebounds per game. Jokic has given the Warriors problems in the past, averaging 30.5 points, 13.1 rebounds and 9.3 assists per game over his last 10 games against them. He has 12 or more boards in seven of those matchups.

Jokic has averaged 12.4 or more rebounds in each of his last three completed seasons, and he’s averaging 17.5 rebound chances per game in the 2026-27 campaign. He’s an easy bet at this number with Denver looking to get over .500 for the first time this season.

Washington Wizards +2.5 (-118) vs. Charlotte Hornets

There are two teams that I think have a real chance to pull off an upset on Monday: The Washington Wizards and Minnesota Timberwolves. But, since the Wolves are playing a back-to-back, I’m taking Washington as a slight dog on the road against Charlotte.

The Wizards are a top-12 team in offensive and defensive rating to open the season even though No. 1 overall pick A.J. Dybantsa has yet to make his NBA debut. Anthony Davis and Trae Young have formed a pretty solid duo around this young core of players, and the Wiz are off to a 2-1 start.

Now, they take on a 2-1 Charlotte team that has close wins over Miami and Brooklyn early on this season. Both of those teams are 25th or worse in net rating in the 2026 season.

The Hornets have the worst offensive rating in the NBA through three games, and they remain without three key rotation players in Coby White, Kon Knueppel and Grant Williams.

Washington may be able to win this game outright, so I’ll gladly take the 2.5 points on Monday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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