Mercury vs. Dream Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Wednesday, Aug. 5

Allisha Gray and the Atlanta Dream are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Las Vegas Aces on Monday, and they find themselves as home favorites for the 15th time in the 2026 season on Wednesday against the Phoenix Mercury.

Atlanta has struggled when favored at home (4-10 against the spread) despite the fact that it has won 10 of 15 home games in 2026.

Now, it takes on a new-look Mercury team that picked up a win over Chicago on Monday in Kelsey Plum’s team debut. Plum was acquired from the Los Angeles Sparks at the trade deadline, and she made an immediate impact on Monday, scoring 20 points off the bench in 20 minutes.

The Mercury need a magical run in the second half to make the playoffs, and they’ve gotten themselves off to a good start.

Still, oddsmakers aren’t buying them against a Dream team that is firmly in the mix for a top-four seed in the W.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Wednesday's contest.

Mercury vs. Dream Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +5.5 (-115)
Dream -5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Mercury: +180
Dream: -218

Total

178.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mercury vs. Dream How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Aug. 5
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Gateway Center
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family 3TV, Atlanta News First, Merc+, Victory+ Sports Network, WNBA League Pass
Mercury record: 12-19
Dream record: 18-11

Mercury vs. Dream Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

None to report

Dream Injury Report

Te-Hina Paopao -- out

Mercury vs. Dream Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kelsey Plum 15+ Points (-172)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Plum is a great prop target in her second game as a member of the Mercury:

Kelsey Plum made her Mercury debut on Monday night, coming off the bench and playing just over 20 minutes. Plum had been sidelined for weeks with a lower leg injury, so it makes sense that Phoenix wanted to ease her back into action.

Well, the star guard hit a clutch 3-pointer in the closing minutes to lift Phoenix to a win, and she finished with 20 points on 6-of-10 shooting (3-of-5 from 3) while also getting to the free-throw line five times.

Plum is averaging 23.6 points across 13 games this season, shooting an impressive 53.0 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from 3. While the Mercury may continue to ease her into action, she’s capable of exploding from a scoring standpoint on any given night.

I expect Plum’s role to increase as she gets more comfortable with her new team, and I love that we're able to get her at 15+ points on Wednesday night. Plum has 15 or more points in 11 of her 13 games this season.

Mercury vs. Dream Prediction and Pick

There’s no doubt that the Dream have been the better team so far in 2026, but Atlanta has really struggled against the spread (as I mentioned earlier) at home.

Does that open the door for Phoenix to at least cover in this matchup? The Mercury are 8-6 against the spread when set as road underdogs in 2026, and they only have a minus-3.7 net rating this season despite being several games under .500.

The addition of Plum is a huge boost to a Phoenix offense that has sputtered all year, ranking 12th in the league in offensive rating. That could be enough to at least compete with the Dream, who are sixth in offensive rating, fifth in defensive rating and sixth in net rating (plus-3.9) in 2026.

Atlanta had a lengthy losing streak in July that dropped it in the standings, and I’m not entirely sold on the Dream as a title contender because of their poor shooting (12th in effective field goal percentage).

They may win this game, but I’ll gladly take the points with Phoenix given the concerning trend for Atlanta as a home favorite.

Pick: Mercury +5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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