Mercury vs. Fire Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, Sept. 17

The Phoenix Mercury and Portland Fire are both eliminated from playoff contention, but they still have four games each to close out the regular season.

They’ll start things off on Thursday night in Portland, as the Fire look to end their first season in the WNBA on a high note. Portland is 16-24 so far in 2026, going 1-1 in two matchups with the Mercury.

Phoenix dropped the last meeting between these teams at home, and it has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments in 2026 after making the Finals last season. Kahleah Copper (21.3 points per game) has put together a solid year, but Phoenix’s move to trade for Kelsey Plum at the trade deadline didn’t work out.

The Mercury have won just three of their last 10 games, and Plum has dealt with more injuries after missing most of the season while she was still with the Los Angeles Sparks.

Still, oddsmakers have Phoenix set as the favorite in Thursday’s clash.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this Western Conference battle on Sept. 17.

Mercury vs. Fire Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury -2.5 (-115)
Fire +2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Mercury: -142
Fire: +120

Total

172.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Mercury vs. Fire How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Sept.17
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Moda Center
How to Watch (TV): Arizona’s Family 3TV, Fox 12 Plus, Merc+, WNBA League Pass
Mercury record: 14-26
Fire record: 16-24

Mercury vs. Fire Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Kahleah Copper -- questionable
Kelsey Plum -- out

Fire Injury Report

Bridget Carleton -- out
Carla Leite -- out
Megan DiLeo -- out
Sania Feagin -- out
Teja Oblak -- out

Mercury vs. Fire Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kahleah Copper 20+ Points (-137)

Copper has been one of the lone bright spots for the Mercury this season, and she played well during the FIBA World Cup for Team USA.

The star guard is averaging 21.3 points per game in the 2026 season, shooting 44.5 percent from the field and 29.8 percent from 3. While the Fire held her to just 19 points in their last meeting, Portland is one of the worst defensive teams in the WNBA, ranking 14th in defensive rating and 13th in opponent points per game.

Copper should get a ton of touches for the Mercury in this matchup, and she’s put up averaging 23.5 points per game over her last 25 games, shooting 50.4 percent from the field during that stretch.

Mercury vs. Fire Prediction and Pick

This is a tough matchup to bet on since both of these teams don’t have a playoff spot to chase over the final week of the regular season.

After splitting their first two matchups in 2026, Portland and Phoenix both rank in the back half of the league in net rating and defensive rating, though the Fire have the No. 8 offense in 2026.

Portland is 7-7 against the spread as a home underdog this season, and the Mercury (8-12 straight up on the road) haven’t exactly proven that they deserve to be favored against a team ahead of them in the standings.

I’m going to take the points with two bad teams facing off.

Pick: Fire +2.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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