Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Friday, May 29

Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty are set to play their fourth game in six days on Friday night, as they wrap up a two-game set against the Phoenix Mercury.

These teams played on Wednesday in Brooklyn, with the short-handed Liberty riding a massive game from Marine Johannes (7-for-9 from 3) to a 10-point win. New York was down Sabrina Ionescu (who has appeared in just one game this season) and star forward Satou Sabally on Wednesday, yet it was still able to get back to .500 in the 2026 season.

Phoenix has seen better days, as it enters this game on a four-game skid. After upsetting the Las Vegas Aces in their season opener, the Mercury have dropped six of seven games, though their net rating is just minus-0.2 this season.

Can they turn things around as road underdogs on Friday?

Whether you’re looking to bet on this game or simply want a prediction for who wins, the SI Betting team has you covered.

Let’s take a look at the latest betting odds, injuries, prop bets and a game pick for this interconference clash.

Mercury vs. Liberty Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +6.5 (-112)
Liberty -6.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Mercury: +215
Liberty: -265

Total

169.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Mercury vs. Liberty How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 29
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Barclays Center
How to Watch (TV): ION
Mercury record: 2-6
Liberty record: 4-4

Mercury vs. Liberty Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- out

Liberty Injury Report

Sabrina Ionescu -- out
Marine Fauthoux -- out

Mercury vs. Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bets

This player prop selection was made before odds were released and is based on past player performance.

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Marine Johannes OVER 3-Pointers Made

Johannes is one of the best shooters in the WNBA, and she’s off to a great start in the 2026 season, hitting 43.5 percent of her shots from deep while making at least three 3-pointers in five of eight games.

On Wednesday, Johannes torched the Mercury for seven 3-pointers (on just nine attempts), and she’s a great bet to light it up again on Friday. This season, Phoenix ranks dead last in the WNBA in 3-pointers allowed per game (10.6) and opponent 3-point percentage (39.2%).

Since Johannes has the green light – she’s taken seven or more 3-pointers in six of eight games – I’d expect New York to look for her early and often in this matchup. If this line is set at 2.5 or power, Johannes is a great target.

Mercury vs. Liberty Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why New York is worth a look at home:

The Liberty were able to win and cover against Phoenix on Wednesday even though two starters – Sabrina Ionescu and Satou Sabally – sat out that matchup.

Sabally is off the injury report and set to return on Friday, so the Liberty should be in a great spot to cover.

Phoenix has won just one of its last seven games, slipping to eighth in the league in net rating in the process. While the Liberty have shown some growing pains with a new-look roster (Sabally signed in free agency) and some injuries in 2026, they are sixth in the league in net rating (plus-3.1) and fourth in effective field goal percentage.

The shooting, especially from 3, is where the Liberty have an advantage in this game as the Mercury hold the No. 12 defensive rating in the league and the worst 3-point defense through eight games.

Sabally's return should be yet another boost to an already potent New York offense. I’ll trust the Liberty to get back over .500 in the 2026 season.

Pick: Liberty -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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