Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, Aug. 11

Two Western Conference teams on the outside of the playoff picture are set to square off in Los Angeles on Aug. 11.

Kahleah Copper and the Phoenix Mercury need a miracle if they’re going to make the playoffs in 2026, but they are small favorites against the Los Angeles Sparks.

These teams executed a deadline deal, sending five-time All-Star Kelsey Plum from L.A. to Phoenix. The move hasn’t pushed the Mercury up the standings yet, and Plum suffered an injury in her last game.

She (calf) played just 14 minutes before exiting, and she’s listed as out on Tuesday night.

The Sparks are 2-1 against the Mercury this season, but they lost their lone meeting at home. Can they play spoiler to the Mercury and their playoff hopes?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Tuesday’s contest.

Mercury vs. Sparks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury -1.5 (-105)
Sparks +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Mercury: -118
Sparks: -102

Total

181.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mercury vs. Sparks How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Aug. 11
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: crypto.com Arena
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV, Arizona Family of Sports Network, Merc+, Spectrum Sports Network
Mercury record: 12-22
Sparks record: 12-19

Mercury vs. Sparks Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Kelsey Plum -- out

Sparks Injury Report

Monique Akoa Makani -- questionable

Mercury vs. Sparks Best WNBA Prop Bets

Sparks Best WNBA Prop Bet

Dearica Hamby OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-131)

Sparks forward Dearica Hamby is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game this season, so I’m very interested in this prop with it set a full board below her season average.

Hamby has 15, six and 10 boards in her three meetings with Phoenix this season, and the Mercury are just 10th in rebound percentage and 11th in opponent rebounds per game this season.

While Hamby’s rebounding hasn’t been the best of her career in 2026, she still has seven or more boards in three of five games since the All-Star break, including multiple appearances with at least 10 boards.

I think she’s undervalued at this number in the fourth meeting between these two teams.

Mercury vs. Sparks Prediction and Pick

These teams both rank in the bottom five in the league in defensive rating this season, but they combined for just 168 points the last time they faced off in Los Angeles.

The Mercury have struggled to put up a ton of points on the road this season, hitting the UNDER in 13 of their 19 road games while ranking 12th in the league in points per game.

As bad as the L.A. defense is, it may be able to contain Phoenix with Plum out on Tuesday night.

Plus, the Sparks have scored under 90 points in three straight games, including a 78-point showing in a loss to Golden State. Without Plum, they lack a true No. 1 option at the guard position.

Since I don’t love betting on either team to win this game, I’ll follow this Phoenix trend, which has been one of the more profitable ones in the league this season.

Pick: UNDER 181.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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