Mercury vs. Sun Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Friday, Aug. 7

It’s now or never for the Phoenix Mercury, as they’re several games out of a playoff spot with just 12 games left in the 2026 regular season.

After making a win-now move and trading for Kelsey Plum at the trade deadline, the Mercury are favored on the road on Friday night against the struggling Connecticut Sun.

CT has just seven wins in the 2026 season, and it has lost five games in a row heading into Friday’s matchup. The Sun split two games on the road against Phoenix earlier this season, but the Mercury certainly have more firepower with Plum (19.5 PPG since the trade) in the fold.

The Mercury are 1-1 since the trade deadline, and they’ll need to go on a major winning streak – and get some help – to sneak into the playoffs.

Can they start a streak in this road matchup?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Friday’s third and final meeting between these teams in 2026.

Mercury vs. Sun Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury -5.5 (-115)
Sun +5.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Mercury: -225
Sun: +185

Total

173.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Sun How to Watch

Date: Friday, Aug. 7
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Mohegan Sun Arena
How to Watch (TV): ION
Mercury record: 12-20
Sun record: 7-23

Mercury vs. Sun Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

None to report

Sun Injury Report

Brittney Griner -- questionable
Raegan Beers -- out

Mercury vs. Sun Best WNBA Prop Bets

Mercury Best WNBA Prop Bet

Kelsey Plum OVER 17.5 Points (-114)

Kelsey Plum has made an immediate impact in Phoenix, even though the Mercury are just 1-1 in the two games that she’s played in since the trade.

The All-Star guard is shooting 60 percent from the field (12-for-20) and 50 percent from 3 (4-for-8) as a member of the Mercury, going for 20 and 19 points in those two games. Oddsmakers have pushed her points prop up to 17.5, but I still believe that is too low.

Plum started and played over 26 minutes in her second game with the Mercury, and I expect her role to continue to expand as the season progresses. Overall, the five-time All-Star is averaging 23.3 points per game on efficient shooting – 53.4 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from 3.

The Sun have improved on defense as this season has gone along, but they’re still just 10th in the W in defensive rating. I’ll gladly bet on Plum with this prop set several points below her season average.

Mercury vs. Sun Prediction and Pick

Connecticut has done a great job covering the spread as a home underdog this season, going 7-3 ATS in 10 games.

The Mercury are just 15-17 against the number overall, and they feel a little overvalued at this price after a double-digit loss to Atlanta earlier this week. The addition of Plum raises Phoenix’s ceiling, but this team has shown all season long that it is far from a title contender, ranking 12th in offensive rating, 12th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating.

The Sun have a minus-4.5 net rating over their last 15 games (a step forward), and they are the No. 3 defense in the league during that stretch.

Phoenix only has a minus-4.3 net rating during that same 15-game period.

There’s a chance Plum gives the Mercury enough firepower to cover this number against Connecticut’s league-worst offense, but she also is still ramping up from a leg injury that sidelined her for over a month.

I don’t mind taking the points here, as Phoenix has done very little in 2026 to deserve to be a two-possession favorite on the road.

Pick: Sun +5.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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