Mercury vs. Wings Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

A bounce-back showing is in order for the Dallas Wings, as they were beaten badly by the Minnesota Lynx on Tuesday night to drop to 7-4 in the 2026 season.

The loss puts Dallas in a tough spot to earn the Commissioner’s Cup bid out of the Western Conference, but the Wings are favored at home on Thursday night against the Phoenix Mercury.

After making the WNBA Finals in 2025, the Mercury are off to a 4-9 start in the 2026 season, losing seven of their last 10 games. The loss of Satou Sabally (signed with New York in the offseason) has hurt, but Phoenix’s defense (11th in defensive rating, 15th in 3-point defense) has been a major issue in 2026.

The Mercury blew out the Las Vegas Aces to open the season, but they have struggled to find that form since. On the bright side, they are 2-2 in Commissioner’s Cup play, making this a pretty crucial game for both teams if they want to win the West.

Paige Bueckers and the Wings are 3-2 at home in the 2026 season, but can they cover after a down showing against Minnesota?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a prop bet to consider and my prediction for this Western Conference clash.

Mercury vs. Wings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +4.5 (-110)
Wings -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Mercury: +164
Wings: -198

Total

169.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Wings How to Watch

Date: Thursday, June 11
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: College Park Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Mercury record: 4-9
Wings record: 7-4

Mercury vs. Wings Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Sami Whitcomb -- out

Wings Injury Report

Odyssey Sims -- out
Awak Kuier -- probable

Mercury vs. Wings Best WNBA Prop Bets

Wings Best WNBA Prop Bet

Paige Bueckers OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-113)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Bueckers is a great prop target against Phoenix:

This season, Bueckers has been a more willing 3-point shooter, taking 4.6 per game after attempting just 3.3 per game as a rookie.

The increased volume has yielded some positive results, as Bueckers is shooting 41.2 percent from beyond the arc (1.9 makes per game) and has made multiple 3-pointers in six of her 11 games.

Phoenix has struggled with 3-point defense this season, allowing opponents to shoot 38.0 percent from deep while allowing 10.2 made 3s per game. Both of those numbers are the worst in the league, and that sets up well for Bueckers to have a big game from beyond the arc.

She was 3-for-7 from 3 against Minnesota on Tuesday, and she’s attempted at least four 3-pointers in nine of her 11 games in 2026.

Mercury vs. Wings Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams rank in the back half of the league in pace (Phoenix is 13th, Dallas is ninth), and there is an interesting trend with the total for Phoenix in road games.

The UNDER has hit in six of the Mercury’s eight road games, and Phoenix enters this matchup with the fourth-best defensive rating in the league on the road.

Dallas is fifth in the league in points per game, but the UNDER has still hit in the majority of the Wings’ matchups this season.

Since neither of these teams wants to push the pace, I wouldn't be shocked falls short of a 170 points. Dallas has combined for 169 or fewer points in five games this season while the Mercury have done so in seven of their matchups, including three in a row.

Pick: UNDER 169.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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