Miami vs. Indiana Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff National Championship

It all comes down to Monday night in college football, as the Indiana Hoosiers take on the Miami Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff National Championship.

The No. 1-seeded Hoosiers – led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza – have rolled through the playoff (and the season as a whole), winning both of their games by over 30 points. Indiana is undefeated this season, and oddsmakers have it set as a sizable favorite in this matchup with the Hurricanes.

This is an interesting game, as it will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, making it a pseudo home game for Carson Beck and the No. 10-seeded Hurricanes.

Miami was not expected to be here, but an elite defense led by presumptive top-five pick Rueben Bain Jr. has led the way. The Hurricanes allowed just three points in a win over Texas A&M in the first round and only 14 points to No. 2 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.

The offense came to life a bit in the semis, hanging 31 points on Ole Miss in a 31-27 win. Beck played by far his best game of the playoff in that matchup, but can he repeat that performance against an undefeated Indiana team?

Curt Cignetti’s club has dominated both sides of the ball all season long, and it’s looking to cap off an amazing season with a win.

The SI Betting team has made picks and props for this game all week, and now I’m attempting to predict the final score as a fun way to help bettors decide on their spread and total bets in this matchup.

Let’s dive into the final breakdown for the National Championship on Monday night.

Miami vs. Indiana Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Miami +8.5 (-110)
Indiana -8.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Miami: +260
Indiana: -325

Total

47.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Following the semifinals of the College Football Playoff, Indiana opened up as a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup, but that has since changed.

Mendoza and company are now favored by 8.5 points, after they shellacked their first opponents in the playoff, beating Alabama by 35 points and Oregon by 34 points.

The Miami defense is elite, but can it hang with one of the best offenses in the country? Oddsmakers don’t seem to think so, as the Hoosiers are set to close as more than a touchdown favorite.

Miami vs. Indiana Final Score Prediction

When it comes to predicting this final score, I’ve enlisted more than just myself to make this pick.

While I think this is the Hoosiers’ game, there is an argument to be made for the Miami defense after it shut down both Texas A&M and Ohio State earlier in the College Football Playoff.

Here’s a look at some takes on this game from the SI team, starting with the legendary Pat Forde:

As an early adopter to the Hoosier bandwagon, no way I’m getting off now. I don’t expect this game to be a total destruction like Alabama and Oregon suffered, but I believe Indiana wins comfortably. The only variable that could shake that belief is if the Miami defensive line is able to tee off on Mendoza and force (rare) turnovers from him. Otherwise, Indiana is far too buttoned-up in every facet of the game and will make history at 16-0.

Pat is buying the Hoosiers to win this game comfortably, and can you blame him? Indiana has not been challenged in this playoff, and it has the best quarterback in the country on its side.

So, it shouldn’t some as a surprise that SI Betting’s own Iain MacMillan is also siding with the Hoosiers:

Indiana is a near-perfect football team, and I'd be surprised if they don't run away with the win in this spot. They outrank Indiana by a significant margin in almost every area, while also facing tougher competition. For example, Indiana ranks third in net success rate while Miami ranks 22nd in that metric.

Despite having the Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback, Indiana is primarily a run-first football team, and that should work out for them in this game as they now get to face a Miami defense that ranks 79th in opponent EPA per rush.

Not to take anything away from Miami's Cinderella run, but they are simply outmatched in this game against a school that has figured out the recipe to succeed in the modern version of college football. Bring in experienced players through the transfer portal and play mistake-free football. The Hoosiers will cap off their season with an impressive win in the National Championship.

I’m going to make it a trifecta in favor of the Hoosiers, as I am not sold on Beck outdueling Mendoza, especially after he failed to even come close to the 200-yard mark against Texas A&M and Ohio State:

Indiana is 32nd in the country in EPA/Rush and 13th in success rate on run plays while the Miami defense is just 79th in the country in EPA/Rush. On the defensive side, Indiana is 23rd in EPA/Rush while Miami clocks in at No. 98.

I think that may put a little too much pressure on Beck, and we’ve seen the Indiana defense give better quarterbacks (Ty Simpson and Dante Moore) fits so far in the College Football Playoff.

There’s a chance we may all end up on “Freezing Cold Takes” after this game, but it’s hard to discount the profile that Indiana has put together this season.

Final Score Prediction: Indiana 27, Miami 17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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