Miami vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

The game of the week in college football takes place in South Bend, Indiana, as the No. 1 Miami Hurricanes hit the road to face the No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a matchup that could decide the top seed in the College Football Playoff.

Miami and quarterback Darian Mensah enter this game with a perfect 8-0 record, yet the Hurricanes are underdogs on the road against the Fighting Irish and Heisman candidate CJ Carr. Not only are these teams close in the standings, but Mensah (first in the Heisman odds) and Carr (fourth in the Heisman race) are both in the mix for the sport’s most prestigious individual award.

Notre Dame does have a loss this season against BYU, but it remains ahead of the Cougars in the AP Poll and blew out Navy in Week 9 to move to 7-1 this season. Meanwhile, Miami survived a scare against Bill Belichick’s North Carolina Tar Heels, getting two late touchdowns to stay undefeated.

The ACC is extremely weak this season, which has put Miami in a great spot to go undefeated in the regular season as long as it beats Notre Dame. Can Mensah, Malachi Toney and Co. get it done?

It won’t be easy, especially since the Fighting Irish are No. 2 in the country in adjusted EPA/Play this season. Miami isn’t far behind (seventh) and it has the No. 1 offenses in adjusted EPA/Play and EPA/Pass while ranking second in success rate.

Oddsmakers have set Notre Dame as a 5.5-point favorite at home with the total for this game at 57.5.

Who has the edge with the No. 1 ranking in college football on the line?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player to watch, my prediction and more for this Week 10 showdown.

Miami vs. Notre Dame Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Miami +5.5 (-110)
Notre Dame -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Miami: +170
Notre Dame: -205

Total

57.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Miami vs. Notre Dame How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Nov. 7
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
How to Watch (TV): NBC
Miami record: 8-0
Notre Dame record: 7-1

Miami vs. Notre Dame Key Player to Watch

CJ Carr, Quarterback, Notre Dame

Notre Dame is favored in this matchup, and Carr getting a head-to-head win over Mensah would totally change the Heisman market.

Right now, Carr is fourth in the odds to win the Heisman (+1200), and he entered the season as the favorite. So, a win would likely move Notre Dame to the No. 1 spot in the country, and Carr is already putting up some impressive numbers in 2026.

The junior has thrown for 18 touchdowns and just one interception, tossing a pair of scores in an easy win over Navy in Week 9. A strong showing against Miami – in a win – likely puts him ahead of Mensah, even though the Miami quarterback has better numbers to this point in the season.

Miami vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick

These are two of the best offenses in the country, ranking No. 2 (Miami) and No. 3 (Notre Dame) in offensive success rate.

The concern with the Hurricanes has been their pass defense – which is now 110th in the country in EPA/Pass – and Carr should be able to throw the ball on them, especially at home. Still, Mensah, Toney, Mark Fletcher Jr. and this offense is good enough to win a shootout, even as an underdog.

While I lean with the Hurricanes to cover this spread now that it’s all the way up to 5.5, I think the OVER is the best bet on Saturday night.

Miami has combined for 58 or more points in four games this season, including three in a row. The defense has taken a serious step back, allowing 35 points in an overtime win over Florida State, 23 to a banged-up Pitt team and 35 to UNC in Week 9.

Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have scored 35 or more points in six of their eight games this season. Notre Dame’s defense may be better than the Hurricanes’ but it also allowed 28 points to BYU in a loss and hasn’t a ton of tough opponents.

Let’s not forget, Notre Dame combined for 63 points and allowed 26 to UNC in an 11-point win just a few weeks ago.

I think both of these offenses will be able to score at will, and while I believe Mensah is the better quarterback right now, I’d much rather take the OVER than play a side on Saturday.

Pick: OVER 57.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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