Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Blue Jays-Angels, Logan Gilbert, Brewers-Tigers)

Wednesday’s Major League Baseball action kicks off at 12:10 p.m. EST with a matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins, and all 30 teams are set to take the field before several have a travel day on Thursday.

I’m eyeing a couple of afternoon matchups for two of my three favorite bets on Wednesday, including a player prop for Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert in a clash with the A’s.

Then, later on in the day, bettors could see a pitcher’s duel between Milwaukee and Detroit.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds and analysis behind each of the MLB best bets for April 22.

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, April 22

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Milwaukee Brewers-Detroit Tigers First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)
Logan Gilbert OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-127)
Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (-163) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Milwaukee Brewers-Detroit Tigers First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-125)

The Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers combined for 16 runs in their series opener on Tuesday night, but I’m expecting a much lower-scoring game on Wednesday with Casey Mize on the mound against Milwaukee’s Chad Patrick.

An All-Star last season, Mize is off to a hot start for Detroit in the 2026 campaign, posting a 2.78 ERA in four starts. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in three of those outings, and the Tigers’ right-hander ranks in the 61st percentile in expected ERA.

Meanwhile, Patrick has allowed just two earned runs in four outings (19.0 innings) in the 2026 season, ranking in the 76th percentile in expected ERA. He’s allowed just one run this month, and the Brewers righty has made it into the fifth inning in three of his four starts.

Since both of these starters are rolling at the moment, I’m going to take the UNDER in the first five innings on Wednesday. Milwaukee is a top-10 team in OPS and runs scored this season, but Mize has three starts where he’s gone at least 5.2 innings and allowed one or fewer runs.

Logan Gilbert OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-127)

Seattle Mariners ace Logan Gilbert is set to make his sixth start of the 2026 season, and I’m eyeing in the prop market with the Mariners struggling out of the gate.

Seattle is just 1-4 in Gilbert’s starts this season despite the fact that he’s posted a 4.03 ERA and a 2.90 FIP.

Gilbert has at least seven strikeouts in three of his five starts, ranking in the 74th percentile in whiff percentage and the 76th percentile in strikeout percentage. His expected ERA is also down at 3.06, a sign that he’s due for some positive regression this season.

The A’s have struggled to avoid strikeouts in 2026, ranking 24th in MLB in K’s per game (9.29). That sets up well for Gilbert, who has at least five punchouts and 16 outs recorded in every single one of his starts.

I think he can shut down this A’s lineup, especially since he throws a ton of strikes. Gilbert ranks in the 92nd percentile in walk percentage, so he should pepper the zone on Wednesday afternoon.

Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (-163) vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Los Angeles Angels have dropped four games in a row, but I’m buying them as home favorites in their series finale with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Jays have Eric Lauer on the mound in this matchup, and he enters this start with a 7.13 ERA and some concerning advanced numbers. Lauer ranks in the 37th percentile in expected ERA and barrel percentage, and he struggles to keep the ball on the ground (10th percentile in ground ball percentage).

That could be an issue against an Angels team that is 10th in MLB in OPS and No. 2 in home runs so far in the 2026 season. The Jays are just 1-3 in Lauer’s starts, and they’re still just 4-7 on the road despite winning the first two games of this series.

Meanwhile, Angels starter Jose Soriano has been lights out in the 2026 season. Soriano has a 0.28 ERA in five starts (the Angels have won all of them), giving up just 11 hits and 13 walks in 32.2 innings of work.

He ranks in the 81st percentile or better in expected ERA, expected batting average against, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, hard-hit percentage and ground-ball percentage.

There is a massive advantage on the mound for the Angels, and I expect them to snap their losing streak in this series finale.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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