Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Blue Jays-Angels, Orioles-Royals, Cardinals-Marlins)

Monday’s Major League Baseball action features 10 games, including some interesting pitching matchups later on in the night, with Dylan Cease, Emerson Hancock and Seth Lugo looking to continue strong starts to the 2026 campaign.

Two of those starters are involved in today’s Walk-Off Wagers – our daily MLB Best Bets column here at SI Betting.

There are so many ways to bet on baseball, and one of my favorite ways is by targeting the first five innings bets. That way, bettors can avoid the randomness of MLB bullpens while still targeting a starter that they like – or want to fade – in that matchup.

I have two games where I’m targeting plays in the first five frames, as well as a moneyline bet for the Toronto Blue Jays-Los Angeles Angeles series opener.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds and the analysis behind each play on April 20.

MLB Best Bets for Monday, April 20

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

St. Louis Cardinals-Miami Marlins First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-130)
Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-126) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Baltimore Orioles (-105)

St. Louis Cardinals-Miami Marlins First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-130)

An interesting pitching matchup is set for this St. Louis Cardinals-Miami Marlins matchup, and I’m eyeing the OVER in the first five innings. Bettors could also get this bet at 3.5 (-220 to the OVER), but I don't mind the extra run since these offenses are 11th (St. Louis) and 13th (Miami) in runs scored this season.

Michael McGreevy is on the mound for the Cardinals, and he’s allowed three or fewer runs in each of his four starts this season, posting a 2.49 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. However, those numbers may be misleading.

McGreevy ranks in just the fifth percentile in expected ERA (7.42), as he’s struggled to generate swings and misses (second percentile in whiff percentage) so far this season. On top of that, he ranks in the 11th percentile in barrel percentage and the sixth percentile in expected batting average against.

So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Miami jump on him in the early innings. The Marlins are one of the best OVER teams in MLB (14-6-2 this season) despite having an elite bullpen (3.39 ERA).

The Marlins have Max Meyer (4.12 ERA) on the mound in this game, and he’s allowed at least three runs in two starts, failing to work more than five innings in any start. The young right-hander has an expected ERA in the 23rd percentile in MLB (5.24) and opponents have an expected batting average of .290 against him. While Meyer does generate more swings and misses than McGreevy, he’s not unhittable (17 hits in 19.2 innings of work), which should help the Cards put at least one run on the board in the opening five frames.

I also don't mind the full game OVER (at 8.5) on Tuesday, but Miami's bullpen has been good enough where I’d prefer fading both starters to open the game instead.

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-126) vs. Los Angeles Angels

Offseason acquisition Dylan Cease has been lights out for the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2026 campaign, allowing just four earned runs in 20.2 innings of work (four starts) heading into Monday’s series opener with the Los Angeles Angels.

The Angels have Reid Detmers (3.57 ERA) on the mound, and the young lefty may finally be putting things together after an up-and-down start to his career. Detmers has an expected ERA of 2.53 this season, and he ranks in the 94th percentile in chase rate.

Cease’s advanced numbers are equally as impressive, as he’s in the 99th percentile in whiff percentage, the 95th percentile in strikeout percentage and has an expected ERA of 2.84. The Jays are just 2-2 in Cease’s starts since they’ve struggled at the dish in 2026, but I’m betting on them to earn a road win on Monday.

Detmers has two starts where he’s failed to get through five innings (allowing at least three runs in each) and the Angels have an average bullpen (4.57 ERA) so far in 2026.

Los Angeles has been by far the better offensive team, but Cease hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a single outing in 2026.

The Jays are also eighth in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitching, so it’s possible this is a bounce-back spot for them on the road. Detmers has been pretty solid in 2026, but he still boasts a 4.71 ERA for his career.

Kansas City Royals First 5 Innings Moneyline vs. Baltimore Orioles (-105)

The Kansas City Royals have lost seven games in a row, and they’re in last place in the AL Central heading into Monday’s series opener with the Baltimore Orioles.

The O’s (minus-26 run differential) are in fourth in the AL East, and they’ve struggled on the road (2-7) so far in 2026. So, could Kansas City be undervalued at home, where it is 5-5 through 10 games?

I’m buying the Royals in this matchup with righty Seth Lugo on the mound. Lugo enters this start with a 1.48 ERA, allowing just 18 hits and four earned runs across four starts (24.1 innings pitched). I’m only taking the Royals in the first five frames in this game since their bullpen has the worst ERA in MLB (6.18) so far this season.

Lugo has thrown at least five innings in every start, working into the seventh inning on three occasions in 2026. So, that gives us a pretty good cushion before the Royals’ bullpen takes over.

Meanwhile, Kyle Bradish (5.49 ERA) is on the mound for the O’s. He may be a little unlucky this season – his expected ERA is all the way down at 3.06 – but Bradish has given up three or more runs in every start, allowing 22 hits and 10 walks in 19.2 innings of work.

Kansas City’s offense has been shaky this season, ranking 28th in OPS and 27th in batting average, but I trust Lugo to keep the O’s (20th in OPS, 19th in batting average) in check in the early innings.

The Royals are worth a look at home, where they’ve been a far better team so far in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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