Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for NLCS Game 1)

The Division Series wrapped up on Saturday night, and we’re onto the Championship Series in the 2026 MLB Playoffs.

The National League Championship Series gets underway tonight with the two bye teams facing off. The Milwaukee Brewers have home-field advantage in a rematch against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

I have a pick and a prop for Dodgers vs. Brewers in NLCS Game 1 on Sunday night.

Let’s get right into the MLB best bets – and their odds at the best betting sites – for Sunday, Oct. 11.

MLB Best Bets for Sunday, Oct. 11

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 6 (-108)
Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-131)

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians UNDER 7 (+100)

I explained in the NLCS Game 1 betting preview why I’m taking the UNDER tonight:

This is one of the best pitching matchups you can ask for with Tarik Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski facing off. Skubal won the AL Cy Young Award in each of the last two seasons, and Misiorowski is the runaway favorite for the honor in the NL this year.

The oddsmakers obviously see that and have this total down at a flat six, but I still don’t think that’s low enough.

Neither of these teams have been particularly strong offensively through their first four playoff games. The Dodgers are batting .203 with a .391 slugging percentage due to their eight home runs, and while the Brewers are batting .250, most of those have been singles for a .348 slugging percentage.

All four Dodgers games so far have gone UNDER the total, with the last three having five runs or fewer. The same goes for the Brewers, although there was one push at seven in there.

The UNDER was 8-3 in Skubal’s starts with the Dodgers and 17-12-2 in Misiorowski’s starts. This is obviously a run or two lower than some of those totals, but I see another UNDER in the cards tonight.

Sean Burke OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-147)

I also broke down why I’m fading Jacob Misiorowski in the strikeout department:

Jacob Misiorowski has tailed off a bit in terms of strikeouts as the year moved along. His strikeouts per nine innings dropped from 13.5 in the first half to 12 in the secon half, including a 10.7 K/9 in August and 11.4 in September.

The NL Cy Young favorite had UNDER 7.5 strikeouts in seven of his final eight starts of the regular season, and then again in the NLDS. That includes six strikeouts in six innings against the Dodgers on Aug. 15.

Add in the fact that the Dodgers were one of the harder teams to strike out this season at 20.6%, and just an 18.7% strikeout rate in the last 30 days, and I love this UNDER on Sunday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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